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Misc Stock Market

Costco with a fairly classic parabolic topping pattern...previous high to new ATH's had been, 32%, 21%, and then a whopping 45% (red flag).... then it tried again failed at 7%. And as you can see the previous sell offs were back to the 100wema...another 13% down.

Does it put in a HnS pattern with a bounce at $480'ish....that would be my guess.

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I own $AMD shares in my long term account as I think it could be a $500B market cap company in a few years...currently at $150B. It just crushed earnings, guided higher and has a great CEO. Lot of check marks. I should have added shares but wanted $75-$80 range and only got down to $85. $100 is always a key level but for $AMD a weekly close over $96 is what I would look for.....

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I think Tesla eventually pulls a Netflix...the competition in streaming caught up to Netflix and the same thing will happen to Tesla with other OEM's coming after them. The only difference that may delay this is Elon controls/pumps Tesla stock via twitter, which he now owns. I will trade Tesla because it's a great momo stock but never short it because of Elon.

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Every single one of these stocks have a long, long way to fall to get to where they need to go, given the environment.
 
Rain Cold said:
Every single one of these stocks have a long, long way to fall to get to where they need to go, given the environment.
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That scares me more than normal right now. I just retired (this month) from the state. I'm selling back a large amount of vacation/bonus which will then be put into my 457. That won't happen for another couple of weeks. The greedy side of me wants to see everything drop more before the money is deposited. Then the (greedy) hope is stocks will then rise again. But my fear is (as you alluded to) that things will continue to drop for the months ahead. So, I need this 457 to draw from for the next three years. Right now, my dilemma is should I move everything straight into bonds.
 
Rain Cold said:
Every single one of these stocks have a long, long way to fall to get to where they need to go, given the environment.
Click to expand...
Many are already there…we are seeing many stocks off highs like the dotcom crash. Except for Apple/MSFT/TSLA.

 
FallsLake said:
That scares me more than normal right now. I just retired (this month) from the state. I'm selling back a large amount of vacation/bonus which will then be put into my 457. That won't happen for another couple of weeks. The greedy side of me wants to see everything drop more before the money is deposited. Then the (greedy) hope is stocks will then rise again. But my fear is (as you alluded to) that things will continue to drop for the months ahead. So, I need this 457 to draw from for the next three years. Right now, my dilemma is should I move everything straight into bonds.
Click to expand...
We’ve had a 20yr bull market run in bonds due to the Fed…yields were at all time lows. Now the Fed says they are going to start QT in June, selling millions a month in treasuries. I can’t imagine bonds going up…but I don’t know. ?‍♂️

www.reuters.com

Explainer: The Fed's new 'QT' plan takes shape

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said it will start culling assets from its $9 trillion balance sheet in June and will do so at nearly twice the pace it did in its previous "quantitative tightening" exercise as it confronts inflation running at a four-decade high.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

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KyloG said:
We’ve had a 20yr bull market run in bonds due to the Fed…yields were at all time lows. Now the Fed says they are going to start QT in June, selling millions a month in treasuries. I can’t imagine bonds going up…but I don’t know. ?‍♂️

www.reuters.com

Explainer: The Fed's new 'QT' plan takes shape

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said it will start culling assets from its $9 trillion balance sheet in June and will do so at nearly twice the pace it did in its previous "quantitative tightening" exercise as it confronts inflation running at a four-decade high.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

View attachment 118235
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With that said, I exited bonds back in August. But, that may change later this year.
 
This is Fidelity Total Bond Fund. Down 7.4% over the past 12 months. S&P is only down 1%.


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Another interesting tweet with respect to bonds. If you were a 60/40 investor in your retirement accounts you are taking the worst of it and approaching what was seen in 2000 and 2008. Once Fed said QT was coming last summer I exited bonds…it was a big a bubble as anything else.

 
Upstart reports after the close on Monday…not a fan but it might be worth some lotto calls for earnings play.

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KyloG said:
Mortgage rates hit 5.75% this week....in December they were 3%. For a $300k mortgage that's an increase of $500....for a $500 mortgage thats an extra $800/month.
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Those are rates for the people with great credit, most other people are getting mortgages for higher.
 
Thought we might get a bounceback week, but instead futures look like more pain inbound. But the indices regularly swing by 3-5% intraday now, so we could open up down 2% on SPY and still end green. ?‍♂️
 
NQ...the covid crash touched the 200 week ema...but the others all bounced at the 150 week ema. It's about 100 pts over the 150wema currently, so a little less than 1% off. I did add QQQ to my primary long term account at $301 this morning. Market probably is going lower but I was all cash in that account to start the year and started adding Q/SPY in the $320/$420 area and will keep adding and hold.

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See this all the time in equities...FTSE was in this nice bull channel, it broke and the dip was violently bought and now a slow bleed and it broke again.

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KyloG said:
Everyone short now...this is getting crazy. Down $500 from the calls I brought into today...I suck
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Down on my "cheapies" I bought Friday before the bell. Certainly a reset on all the charts occurring. They(the charts) didn't help me much on the way up, not surprised their not helping me find bottoms.
 
The sentiment from "many" is SPX $3800 is the pivot for a market bottom which was only 5% off this morning's low. Now whether we get there or now we shall see...

Technically could see a bottom, atleast a short/intermediate at the least, in the $3750-$3940 area.

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Q's weekly RSI is 2nd lowest just behind the covid crash since 2008.

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Previous corrections/crashes (2001/2008/2020) all were led by higher unemployment, which we don't have, we have full employment, strong labor market. In 2018 that was a 2 month deal and then ripped to ATH's because FED paused rate hikes. Yeah, we aren't getting Fed bailout this time but we are approaching overreaction territory. This market is such a momo market it over corrects both up and down. That's just my opinion and right now it looks like the market is going $0 and we will never see another green day again.
 
I don't think there is a bottom. I think there is a shift to some form of new economy.....the corruption (aka fed/private central banks and hedge funds) has eliminated the "free" out of "free market".
 
Last time QQQ saw 6 straight down weeks where it closed below the previous weeks low was in 2001.

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