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Misc Stock Market

People hiding money in Apple...full on tech crash and Apple flat. Kind of dumb...it's not cheap by any means and with tech selling off you would think this would follow soon. But...still just short SPY from $643...shorted Tesla today too...that has no business being $330's.

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KyloG said:
People hiding money in Apple...full on tech crash and Apple flat. Kind of dumb...it's not cheap by any means and with tech selling off you would think this would follow soon. But...still just short SPY from $643...shorted Tesla today too...that has no business being $330's.

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It makes sense to me because Apple is making up for the months of doing nothing while other tech did well.
 
PLTR looks done for awhile…crazy overvalued. At its peak last week it was trading at over 130x sales…peers are 20x…NVDA is 25x.

Not touching short or long.

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Went to all cash in my 401k today at SPY $640, only 1% off highs. Went all cash back in March when SPY broke $600…bought back in at multiple levels in the tariff crash with roughly avg of $540 and now all cash at $640. Market has been parabolic off lows…we got a weakening labor market and high inflation. Not good. We get a 8-10% correction I will start buying back in. We should get a seasonal correction over the next couple of months. Cash in 401k earns over 4%.

Went 60% cash in my IRA but have a hedge on now. Leave that and massage some stuff in there.

Swing account nothing on except a SPY short from $643.

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NVDA put in a large engulfing daily taking out its 8/20dema. This market can V right back up…it’s done it over and over but if NVDA follows through down tomorrow….that’s telling.

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Alright...covered my SPY/IWM shorts at $634/224 and now put on NVDA at $169.30 and AMD at $160.30. I won't be in these overnight or maybe even until close...Qs is really really oversold intraday.
 
KyloG said:
Alright...covered my SPY/IWM shorts at $634/224 and now put on NVDA at $169.30 and AMD at $160.30. I won't be in these overnight or maybe even until close...Qs is really really oversold intraday.
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Closed NVDA/AMD swings out quick at $173 from 169.30 and AMD at $163 from $160.30. In these market I will be in/out of quick swing longs. See how the afternoon goes....been a good day and won't get chopped up.
 
Markets pretty ugly and Qs going for day 6 red...I do expect a hard bounce higher today or tomorrow...you don't get 5 days down in a row in bullish sequences. Probably start of a seasonal correction but this market is so manic that it could be at ATH's by Monday.

SPY has been red 12 out of the past 18 trading days but yet still was just over 1% from highs. Kind of crazy.

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Market is stuck in mud today. Nothing on. Waiting until Powell saves the markets tomorrow. I know I won’t do much tomorrow. Terrible market right now.
 
KyloG said:
Market is stuck in mud today. Nothing on. Waiting until Powell saves the markets tomorrow. I know I won’t do much tomorrow. Terrible market right now.
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Little stunned how bad this market is...I went all cash in 401k last week and in swing account and 50% cash in IRA but didn't expect this. This is 2022 price action...

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Qs down 6 days in a row...SPY down 5...and IWM looks fine.

This is the strangest market right now...I have no idea what is going on or what to do next so not doing anything.

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SPY down 5 days in a row and Qs down 6 days...this is the worst looking price action I've seen in a long long time. Worse than the tariff crash...worst since 2022 bear market.

Validation on why I went all cash but...6 days down in a row. last time that happened was Oct 2022, bottom of bear market.

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Well going to stay all cash in my 401k through October....we are going to get a correction sometime in the next 2 months. Added to my IRA some and now 30% cash. I sold 1/2 my NVDA at $177 from $42. It had gotten too big for my account.

I added NBIS at $66 today to my IRA and plan to stick with this unless something fundamentally changes with it. Small cap and high growth so will be highly volatile....but taking a flyer. This very well may drop back to $50 in the coming weeks/months but I think it could 3x the next couple of years.

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We probably should have known something was up into today...IWM was holding up well all week while mega caps were getting hammered. And IWM ripped hard today...clearly some new about Powell/rate cuts.

I tried fading IWM on Wedesday and it wouldn't budge while Qs was getting rocked...very atypical so should have known.

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Tough to be bearish at all when the DOW is breaking out to new highs from 8 months ago...and small caps look next. IWM hasn't had new highs since mid 2021


$226 was a key pivot on IWM and now $240-$243 will be a fight...really looks like that comes this week.
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I would still be surprised to see any kind of a rate cut. There just isn’t any metric that supports it. Inflation is already beginning another acceleration as wholesale prices put pressure on consumer prices. A short term rate drop won’t do anything to affect long term rates like mortgage lending.

The Fed has to be very careful not to get backed into a “coffin corner” of needing to raise rates to pull down tariff driven inflation with an already soft labor market. Healthcare is the only place we’re currently adding jobs. By the time you realize you’re in stagflation it’s too late.
 
IWM is the index to watch, although I have my doubts that broadening out works well.

The Dow in general has held up a lot better than "45.6k-ish". If the UNH disaster didn't occur, it'd probably be at 47k.

How IWM acts at prior ATHs and if it gets slapped back or not probably decides 2026.
 
just has that teetering look. Like Kylo says it can always rip higher but it wouldn’t take much to send it the other way
 
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