I think you will be north of the warm front...prob no go for severe there. maybe some elevated stuff yes.
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Severe Severe weather threat (2/15 - 2/17)
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
like how? good for severe or bad? They are what... 6.8 ish. That should be suffice right?
no worries. damn! for the cold season that looks kind of scary to be honest.
Normally with setups around Dixie, low level lapse rates struggle to get above 6C, above 6C is favorable for tornadoes, 6.8 is more then enough
ok, that's what I was thinking as well. Ya, I would be surprised, especially if 00z euro continues this trend (euro has been very consistent with this so far) if SPC doesn't highlight a D4 area.
The euro depicts 3 possible scenarios, the 1st one (blue) is a QLCS/embedded supercells along the cold front, with a wind/tornado threat, also has the best low level moisture/cape, it also shows a slowly lifting warm front/wedge front (red) we know what these can do and have done in the past, soundings along it depict decent CAPE/moderate shear, sometimes you can get enhanced SRH, and sometimes storms can push the warm front even further south themselves with there own OFBs. The 3rd area (Yellow) is a question mark and just depends on the forcing, bet it’s the area to watch given the more free environment. The euro does show capping in the yellow area, for example 
gawxnative
Member
Well I have the concern that the area depicted in CAPE and Lightning Density you posted are some of the worst outcomes from a historical standpoint, for Winter Month events in GA
Yeah, outbreaks like 3/3/19 come to mind
NoSnowATL
Member
I would like to see this move about 30 miles north.
gawxnative
Member
And 2/10/2000
GFS doesn’t have as much CAPE as euro but wow the wind fields. No moisture return issues
Kinetic energy increases late tonight, diffluence aloft,
elevated dewpoints and plenty column moisture, and eastward
progressing bands of low-level convergence, should lead to
convection crossing the area after midnight. SW winds near 50 kt
in the 2-3 kft layer, and moderate CAPE bears a watch. The main
axis of mean 0-3 km helicity will track along and west of I-95,
but a secondary axis will lift north adjacent to the rising
warm front, so there appears to be an isolated tornado risk
after midnight but before daylight, as well as a localized
straight-line wind hazard.
elevated dewpoints and plenty column moisture, and eastward
progressing bands of low-level convergence, should lead to
convection crossing the area after midnight. SW winds near 50 kt
in the 2-3 kft layer, and moderate CAPE bears a watch. The main
axis of mean 0-3 km helicity will track along and west of I-95,
but a secondary axis will lift north adjacent to the rising
warm front, so there appears to be an isolated tornado risk
after midnight but before daylight, as well as a localized
straight-line wind hazard.
I shoulda edited the above.. text display here.. National Weather Service Text Product Display
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Today’s marginal risk was expanded NW in NC to the US 1 corridor
Euro looked pretty much the same from yesterday’s 12z run. Pretty impressive setup I saw.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
62F here later tonight ?
Sucks to suck for Charlotte & Greensboro.
Sucks to suck for Charlotte & Greensboro.
Yep, not nice looking at all, wonder if they go enhanced hatched with this setup tbh or stay slight, I could see those storms along the warm front pushing it south even more more towards SC down to the coast
