000
FXUS64 KFWD 031832
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
132 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Tonight/
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing significant large
hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes will be possible late this
afternoon into tonight. All North and Central Texas residents need
to stay weather aware today given the possibility of significant
severe weather. Make sure to have multiple ways of receiving any
weather alerts, and have a plan in case you are in the path of
hazardous weather.
A rapid evolution of today and tonight`s forecast has taken place
within the last 24 hours. Minor changes in the timing of the
front and rapid
moisture return have contributed to an increasing
potential for significant severe weather starting late this
afternoon. A cold
front is now draped northeast to southwest from
near Bowie to Graham, slowly advancing to the southeast.
Meanwhile,
dew points throughout the region have surged into the
lower 70s ahead of the
front. At the moment, a stout
capping
inversion is keeping
convection from developing. This, however, is
expected to change in the next few hours. Radiational heating
will continue ahead of the
front, leading to greater
destabilization across the region. CAMs continue to favor an area
around Stephenville for initial
thunderstorm development, which
coincides with recent RAP analysis of a developing area of greater
moisture convergence.
An incoming
shortwave, coupled with the surface
front and a
pseudo-dryline will come together to produce explosive
thunderstorm development initially to the west/southwest of the
DFW Metroplex. Storms will then migrate eastward through North
Texas. Steep mid-level lapse rates will lead to
CAPE values
exceeding 4000
J/kg which would translate to significantly large
hail. Deep layer
shear and a strong southerly low-level
flow will
also increase the potential for damaging winds and tornadoes. The
overall
tornado potential will depend on the evolution of the
storms across North Texas. If storms are able to remain discrete,
a greater
tornado potential may develop in areas east of I-35 and
north of I-30.
An atypical setup this evening will also lead to a potential for
severe storms behind the
front. Given continued steep lapse rates
and high amounts of
instability, a few elevated supercells capable
of large
hail will be possible across North Texas after around
10pm.
The main line of storms associated with the
front will continue
moving to the southeast through the night,
likely exiting our far
eastern and southeastern counties closer to sunrise Tuesday.
Cloudy skies will persist through much of tomorrow morning, but
should gradually disperse by tomorrow afternoon. In contrast with
today`s temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, tomorrow`s
highs will stay in the 80s across North Texas to mid 70s across
Central Texas.