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Severe Severe Weather February 16th -18 2022

Not much suggesting a moderate risk. Not much suggesting a tornado outbreak. Storms look quite messy. Severe wind seems to be the biggest threat. With tornadoes looking like more of a threat for Mississippi than anywhere else. Nam looks more like a squall line with some imbedded rotation. All in all it’s meh imo
 
Well dropped off my kids and the schools were a ghost town. I’m assuming a lot of parents kept their kids at home just in case. The wind has really picked up too. The sun is trying to peek through
 
How we hit 71 today is baffling. That's the forecasted high and we are locked in 49-51, in situ wedge. Thick clouds, drizzle starting
 
Tarheel1 said:
That’s what whamby is for. Jokes and banter!
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And thats what all the weenie and clown faces littering all the message in here are for as well. Not here until recently when the enchanced risk everybody thought this was dud and nothing to worry about. I was persistent in my idea. If anybody should be able to put a bit of a joke it should be me. I stuck with this since day 7...

It seems like everybody from other than Alabama and Mississippi that is not being effected has absolutely CRAPPED on this threat and thread. And then each time what I was persistent on happened. I'm no fortune teller, I forecast on what I know and the patterns I've experienced and can see. And most Carolina / people outside people dont understand the patterns we have.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Latest hrrr is even messier View attachment 113779
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Yeah today looks like the typical messy storm mode severe day. Probably a few spinups and tornadoes but with this much convection things will struggle to stay discreet. Those leading edge cells on hrrr are the highest risk storms.

D4615568-E860-4A3F-A6D0-4FD3E183A88C.png
 
Zander98al said:
And thats what all the weenie and clown faces littering all the message in here are for as well. Not here until recently when the enchanced risk everybody thought this was dud and nothing to worry about. I was persistent in my idea. If anybody should be able to put a bit of a joke it should be me. I stuck with this since day 7...

It seems like everybody from other than Alabama and Mississippi that is not being effected has absolutely CRAPPED on this threat and thread. And then each time what I was persistent on happened. I'm no fortune teller, I forecast on what I know and the patterns I've experienced and can see. And most Carolina / people outside people dont understand the patterns we have.
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No one crapped on the threat. You over hyped it. We were hampering expectations. You’re not the only one that experiences severe weather and not the only one who has years of experience tracking these type of events. The chance for severe weather like damaging wind gusts was easy to see far out. The look for a tornado outbreak has never really been there yet you and some others threw out constant statements like “this looks increasingly worrisome for tornadoes” or “leaning towards a tornado outbreak” on repeat for 6 days. If anyone sees tornados it will probably be Mississippi. Even then I don’t think this will be considered a tornado outbreak(6-10 naders within a given area). This threat has always been damaging winds with a few tornadoes possible if they can latch onto dynamics well. 1-2 maybe stronger than average but nothing that tips the scale of an outbreak. Me and others have been saying this for days and this is what looks likely at the moment.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
No one crapped on the threat. You over hyped it. We were hampering expectations. You’re not the only one that experiences severe weather and not the only one who has years of experience tracking these type of events. The chance for severe weather like damaging wind gusts was easy to see far out. The look for a tornado outbreak has never really been there yet you and some others threw out constant statements like “this looks increasingly worrisome for tornadoes” or “leaning towards a tornado outbreak” on repeat for 6 days. If anyone sees tornados it will probably be Mississippi. Even then I don’t think this will be considered a tornado outbreak(6-10 naders within a given area). This threat has always been damaging winds with a few tornadoes possible if they can latch onto dynamics well. 1-2 maybe stronger than average but nothing that tips the scale of an outbreak. Me and others have been saying this for days and this is what looks likely at the moment.
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and yes the threat was crapped on as my posts on the possibility that i saw happening was met with stark criticism, my views are not by the book, I use a bit of foresight which you need in weather, sure I can lean towards a tornado outbreak because that's the potential it had I've said it had high potential. And no I didn't over hype because this event has come to fruition has it not? I see that y'all where hampering expectations. I was giving out the possibilities of what could happen. Yes but you have not experienced Alabama weather for your whole life. You probably know Carolina weather. Heck if I moved out there it would be a clean slate for me I know nothing of patterns there. But was our statements right for worrisome potential of tornadoes? Yes.

BUT. Enough, I'm done arguing did my suspicions come true yes? Can this still be a dud yes? Could this produce a tornado outbreak yes.
 
Zander98al said:
and yes the threat was crapped on as my posts on the possibility that i saw happening was met with stark criticism, my views are not by the book, I use a bit of foresight which you need in weather, sure I can lean towards a tornado outbreak because that's the potential it had I've said it had high potential. And no I didn't over hype because this event has come to fruition has it not? I see that y'all where hampering expectations. I was giving out the possibilities of what could happen. Yes but you have not experienced Alabama weather for your whole life. You probably know Carolina weather. Heck if I moved out there it would be a clean slate for me I know nothing of patterns there. But was our statements right for worrisome potential of tornadoes? Yes.

BUT. Enough, I'm done arguing did my suspicions come true yes? Can this still be a dud yes? Could this produce a tornado outbreak yes.
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Bro... these are literally your first posts in this thread. SIX DAYS before the event.

With respect, all you did was hype and cut down the extremely educated posters suggesting a more messy day. Which is that is happening rather than a day of full discreet supercells.

Zander98al said:
Getting some serious super Tuesday vibes with this system for some reason. But a bit more further south in terms of risk. Still a long ways out, but my general take is I'm reminded a bit of super Tuesday.
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Zander98al said:
The more I continue to look at it the more I'm amazed. It's been a bit since we've seen a setup this good. Go back to the march 2020 outbreaks. But tune up the wind shear more. Also of note. Disregard the big blobs of simulated radar on global models. They do that for some events. Globals models had big blobs for April 27th and we all know how that ended up. Very dynamic systems aren't always good at having global models determining storm mode
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Zander98al said:
All signs are legit screaming tornado outbreak at this point. And the consistency between all global models is INCREDIBLY uncanny. We will likely see a upgrade in risk to 30% by tommorow or the next day. Mesoscale models can undercut some of the severity or make it greater but overall the synoptic scale favors a tornado outbreak.
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Yes, there will be a few tornados today. Yes, today is a severe weather event. Yes, people need to be informed. Is this a top of the graph severe event? Not even remotely close.
 
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