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Severe Severe Weather February 16th -18 2022

With severe weather, cloud cover, it limits instability at the surface, cape is marginal, shear is sufficient, imo, the enhanced risk was put there to see if cloud cover breaks, if it does then yes alright tornado that, few long tracked, cape at the surface isn't strong enough, it's a wait and see event, like all weather, dynamics are there, in place, could honestly be a high shear low cape environment, no one will no until you walk out your front door and look at the cloud cover, very strong system, be more worried about winds, just don't think everything is in place
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
HRRR is still a very crowded setup, and UH isn’t impressive probably due to low level issuesView attachment 113742View attachment 113741
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Thermodynamics really limits the ceiling on this setup, and looks rough on low level mesocyclones, but as usual, in most setups in the winter/spring, there’s a chance one or 2 storms manages to take advantage, Hodographs are favorable for cyclic supercell behavior given the great streamwise vorticity in the low levels.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This soudning close to philadelphia MS is probably the most impressive I’ve seen modeled, low/mid level lapse rates aren’t impressive but it’s enough to get the job done, and 3CAPE is manageable, really depends on how crowded things are in MS View attachment 113743
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If a storm can get established in that environment, then the LCL heights should make it very efficient at ingesting streamwise vorticity. As you mentioned, the low level instability might be just enough. It will be close, and I don't feel confident either way. Just have to see how thing evolve tomorrow.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
HRRR is still a very crowded setup, and UH isn’t impressive probably due to low level issuesView attachment 113742View attachment 113741
Click to expand...
Verbatim this is a few tornadoes some of which could become strong if they can properly tap into what’s given. This doesn’t scream tornado outbreak to me. Damaging winds though I could see being a much bigger issue. Maybeee more of a tornado issue in Mississippi
 
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Looks like things are gonna pick up in a few hours around here. SPC mentioning a watch is likely to be issued soon. Looks like mostly a hail threat with the potential for some stronger winds around here in Central OK. Might be a slightly higher tornado potential closer to the Red River though.97C28622-08D9-4959-97DB-838CA41A3823.jpeg
 
One thing that is concerning is the bulk shear vector is almost due west which creates about a 45 degree angle to the front allowing cells to be more discrete and capable of producing tornadoes. I have seen this occur several times in recent past and tends to over preformed with the number of tornadoes it produces.
 
BufordWX said:
Looks like things are gonna pick up in a few hours around here. SPC mentioning a watch is likely to be issued soon. Looks like mostly a hail threat with the potential for some stronger winds around here in Central OK. Might be a slightly higher tornado potential closer to the Red River though.View attachment 113745
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Just had a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued until 5:00 AM.47A25036-2930-486C-8ED2-5CFEC7B8C5D9.jpeg
 
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