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Severe Severe weather 3/30-4/1 2021

BMX only showing a 1 on their scale for storms with wind and hail... tornadoes not mentioned... sure would be nice not to have tornado supercells for once.
i agree everything this season seems amplified 10x when it comes to severe weather. Can't remember the last time there was a back to to back high risk so early in a season
 
Looks like the NAM is adjusting wind profiles to be more favorable for tornadoes on Wednesday in the Carolinas
 
If nam holds a slight risk may be needed for Wednesday in Carolinas. Nothing eye popping but the line will move through during the evening so.


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Lapse rates are horrendous tho, and Hodographs aren’t really concerning
Later threat = better LLJ/lapse rates
Earlier threat = more diurnal heating but ---- lapse rates and weak low level shear F96B45F0-3FA7-474A-9392-9C6FB43A84FF.png
 
Both Nam models show a tornado threat in Carolinas. Maybe low threat but a threat. The other models don’t really show much tornado risk. Something to watch but for now we can assume the Nam is likely to aggressive.


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