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Severe Severe Weather 2/3-2/4

jackendrickwx said:
Was looking at this one several days ago, pretty textbook winter setup w/ sharp cold front and nice warm sector. Should be noted (saw a tweet can't find it again) that best hodos and best CAPE don't really overlap. Also, heres a sounding from Jackson.View attachment 112559
Click to expand...
Pretty good overlap in the Tuscaloosa area. Really have to watch trends to see just how far north moisture even makes it as well. HRRRSE_con_1kmhel_006.pngHRRRSE_con_3kmhel_006.pngHRRRSE_con_sbcape_007.png
 
Nice supercell near Tuscaloosa. Probably not surface based though. Probably riding north of the moisture surge. Screenshot_20220203-110518.png
 
mcd0120.gif
mcd0120.gif

Could be a watch soon
 
This should be the prime area here soon. Cape and shear a steadily increasing Screenshot_20220203-112119-122.png
 
HSV AFD had a 0938 update, best threat is south of the HSV AFD but need to stay alert

Sufficient instability with the impressive wind profiles and sickle-
shaped hodographs make the severe potential difficult to disregard.
While not the most favorable setup for severe weather, damaging wind
gusts will be possible in stronger bands of rainfall as the front
pushes through the area this afternoon and evening. A tornado or two
can also not be ruled out, although this is a low threat. The best
timing estimate is 2 PM to 7 PM for severe risk, but the flooding
risk will persist throughout the day. I again want to emphasize that
flooding is the primary threat to life today, and people should
exercise caution if driving in low lying or flood prone areas.
 
HSVweather said:
HSV AFD had a 0938 update, best threat is south of the HSV AFD but need to stay alert

Sufficient instability with the impressive wind profiles and sickle-
shaped hodographs make the severe potential difficult to disregard.
While not the most favorable setup for severe weather, damaging wind
gusts will be possible in stronger bands of rainfall as the front
pushes through the area this afternoon and evening. A tornado or two
can also not be ruled out, although this is a low threat. The best
timing estimate is 2 PM to 7 PM for severe risk, but the flooding
risk will persist throughout the day. I again want to emphasize that
flooding is the primary threat to life today, and people should
exercise caution if driving in low lying or flood prone areas.
Click to expand...
One thing I always notice in severe setups there's always a rotating storm that produces at the very north portion of instability where high shear is. That would end up being near Huntsville; in north Alabama. Not saying it will happen but I have seen it a lot. Where there's very low cape but enough that the shear will wisp up and produce a spin up.
 
Zander98al said:
One thing I always notice in severe setups there's always a rotating storm that produces at the very north portion of instability where high shear is. That would end up being near Huntsville; in north Alabama. Not saying it will happen but I have seen it a lot. Where there's very low cape but enough that the shear will wisp up and produce a spin up.
Click to expand...
Agree, reminds me of the last significant severe setup where there was the tornado up in KY on the rain cooled boundary where the parameters were maximizing further south.
 
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