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Severe Severe Threat April 5th-7th

Dew points rising fairly quickly as well
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Sun shining bright in west Alabama . Won't be long for the sun pops out on i20


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Man the atmosphere along i20 is destabilizing fairly quickly now once the sun pops out in the next hour it's only gonna get worse as far as destabilization
 
DadOfJax said:
Who said it was going to bust....I just pointed out am observation. The only thing foolish is your interpretation of my comment.
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Sorry, I should have toned my response down.

Given the magnitude of parameters most guidance has been spitting out I personally don't think it's wise to back off it yet so early..that's my point
 
GTWXAlum said:
Sorry, I should have toned my response down.

Given the magnitude of parameters most guidance has been spitting out I personally don't think it's wise to back off it yet so early..that's my point
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It's pretty clear the energy transport north is unabated with a sharp cutoff at the warm front. It will be interesting to see how much farther it nudges northeast. I'd also think the areas along the warm front will have a significant boundary to operate on.
 
Per NWS BMX, storm relative helicities of 108 m2/s2 and 0-6km bulk shear at 54 knots per latest derived hodograph. That SRH is less than impressive, though as they pointed out still supportive of TORs, but may limit the tornado threat WEST of I65.

I am very interested to see where cell genesis occurs ahead of the approaching cold front. As Storm5 pointed out, CAPE is plentiful. SRH is lagging to the west and should explode westward as the low ejects ENE. The question for AL will be timing as the best SRH and CAPE values may be a bit disjointed.
 
I didn't think this would be much of an event here, but RAH seems to be pretty confident it will be. And looks like the threat will be at the worst possible time here.

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Sglynx1 said:
Per NWS BMX, storm relative helicities of 108 m2/s2 and 0-6km bulk shear at 54 knots per latest derived hodograph. That SRH is less than impressive, though as they pointed out still supportive of TORs, but may limit the tornado threat WEST of I65.

I am very interested to see where cell genesis occurs ahead of the approaching cold front. As Storm5 pointed out, CAPE is plentiful. SRH is lagging to the west and should explode westward as the low ejects ENE. The question for AL will be timing as the best SRH and CAPE values may be a bit disjointed.
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Good points , yep directional SRH is no doubt lacking . But as you pointed out still supportive of tornadoes . Could be more a large hail threat for western and central parts vs a big tornado threat as the SRH catches up .


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Maybe I'm wrong but the 3k NAM to my eye appears to have the most significant tornado threat Cen/N Al, Ga up into SE Tn with still possibility of long track tornadic cells
 
I am increasingly concerned about east AL and GA from about Montgomery over to Troy and Columbus northward. For a few days now, several models have hammered these areas with massive UH streaks.

The boundary left by the warm front, wherever it ends up, is going to be a focal point too.

IMO, ATL and a significant radius around it is effectively under the gun, so to speak.
 
Sglynx1 said:
Per NWS BMX, storm relative helicities of 108 m2/s2 and 0-6km bulk shear at 54 knots per latest derived hodograph. That SRH is less than impressive, though as they pointed out still supportive of TORs, but may limit the tornado threat WEST of I65.

I am very interested to see where cell genesis occurs ahead of the approaching cold front. As Storm5 pointed out, CAPE is plentiful. SRH is lagging to the west and should explode westward as the low ejects ENE. The question for AL will be timing as the best SRH and CAPE values may be a bit disjointed.
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Yep you can see on the meso page that the winds in central and western Al aren't backed and have a bit of a westerly component to them the more west you go which may limit the tornado threat and significant tornado threat there. I personally think the best corridor is MGM to MCN to CAE
 
The patch of rain coming here probably won't have much more than thunder but....it might clear after that for a while, ughhhh, not good.
 
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And here's a later image which is a little concerning for NC peeps especially considering the timing...

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Man, there are some crazy HP Supercells in South Alabama, some are moving in a ENE motion as opposed to NE.
 
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