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Severe Severe Threat April 5th-7th

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DISCUSSION...GPS PW data are exhibiting a low bias by at least 0.5
inch from parts of AL into GA, which has influenced initialization
of the latest numerical weather prediction guidance. Per
coordination with the Weather Prediction Center, it appears that
related initialization is causing substantial dry biases in model
guidance -- extended through the Day 1 forecast period. With an
inland influx of rich moisture feeding ongoing intense supercells in
southern AL (with dewpoints into the middle 70s), and the
around-16.6-g/kg mean mixing ratio per LIX 12Z sounding, and around
1.5-inch PW per Atlanta and Birmingham 12Z soundings, it is evident
that rich moisture and related strong buoyancy does indeed extend
inland. As such, observational data and previous model runs will
play a major role in the consideration for a High Risk upgrade, as
the dry bias has influenced the latest model guidance. While an
Outlook upgrade is possible, it is not certain.

..Cohen/Marsh/Hart.. 04/05/2017
 
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From Rah NWS and hopefully this continues to come in a little later just so people are awake/alert to what's happening

Those storms will be capable of producing all severe weather hazards, including damaging straight line winds,
isolated tornadoes, and large hail, mainly between 2 AM and 8 AM.
 
Sglynx1 said:
He just essentially confined the tornado threat to SE and E AL. He may be right, but I'm not too sure about that. If storms initialize closer to the AL/MS state line, a tornado threat will certainly be present.
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That and the fact the cap isn't that strong . But I know I wouldn't mind it holding . I have plans this afternoon. As you pointed out , need to see where storms start to fire
 
Storm5 said:
That and the fact the cap isn't that strong . But I know I wouldn't mind it holding . I have plans this afternoon. As you pointed out , need to see where storms start to fire
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If the cap is real didn't see the part about launching it during the thunderstorm
 
HRRR which I know has been crap today has the Ga/SC in the cross hairs, looks more in line with what Shane posted above about his thoughts

HRRRMA_con_uphlysw_018.png
 
currently under a severe thunderstorm warning here in Paulding county, GA until 11:15. We had a brief period of pea sized hail,but now just constant lightning and pouring rain, absolutely dead still out, no wind at all
 
SD said:
Absolutely not what I wanted to see for tomorrow morning
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Hodo looks a little sloppy and the surface winds/slinky is a little off. Probably not a true PDS TOR sounding if that helps. Lol


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Jon said:
Hodo looks a little sloppy and the surface winds/slinky is a little off. Probably not a true PDS TOR sounding if that helps. Lol


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I just noticed the VBV on the hodo, that's what I get for looking only at the PDS TOR
 
The Midlands of SC should be on alert. The majority of that rain/storms squeaked by to our Northwest this morning and there is a potential High Risk coming for parts of GA/SC. In fact, a larger area of SC that even the hatched tornado is outlined.
 
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Pink looks like the new high risk on the MD page. Before the high res models went to crap this morning GA looked like the high risk area last night on the 3km Nam (Not AL).

This is an old**** model run but I posted it this morning around 12am showing potential of isolated supercells and slow moving, long-track tornadoes just south of ATL metro. My thoughts haven't changed with this area being the area to focus on and watch as it has the best timing and severe parameters are juiced.

***old model run***
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South of I20 and East of I65....hold on to your hats....rest of AL may not see a red letter type day, but possibly some isolated SVR reports.
 
I am right on the line. Interested to see how the rest of the day plays out. I am right where the end of 459 meets I-20 to tuscaloosa. Sun is shining bright here at the office off of exit 6 in Bessemer area.
 
DadOfJax said:
South of I20 and East of I65....hold on to your hats....rest of AL may not see a red letter type day, but possibly some isolated SVR reports.
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Based on what. Sun is out in west alabama into ms and the dry line is draped over the ms river right now. CAPE is advecting north and the sun being out will only destabilize things more for west and north alabama.
 
Definitely some holes in cloud cover throughout AL and starting to pop up in East AL as well think we are about a hour or so away from seeing large sections of cloud breaks over East AL Central/N Central GA
 
This is a really interesting severe weather event to watch unfold. Already had some bad storms today. I will be curious to see what happens once we get some breaks in the clouds.
 
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