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Severe Severe Threat April 5th-7th

skywatcher said:
Yeah, for sure. But if the warm front carrying those storms doesn't make it here - what does that do to the atmosphere stability?
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It would no doubt keep the best atmospheric parameters a little south of the valley . Just have to see how far north it gets
 
I think the reason why the HRRR is initializing scrappy is because a couple of radar sites are down.
 
Glad these morning storms are coming to an end. Now I can get some sleep :) Guess we will see what this afternoon brings.
 
How does that impact the location of the cold front that will push all this mess away from all of us?
 
I'll say it again....I20 corridor being worked over extremely bad right now....I wouldn't be surprised to see the SPC drop alot of the northern extent from the MDT. Going t be very hard to get anything cellular going in this mess right now.
 
well, I'm out of moderate, on the west side of huntsville...west ala is barely in slight now
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DadOfJax said:
I'll say it again....I20 corridor being worked over extremely bad right now....I wouldn't be surprised to see the SPC drop alot of the northern extent from the MDT. Going t be very hard to get anything cellular going in this mess right now.
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Pretty sure this is gonna clear out in the next couple of hours
 
DadOfJax said:
I'll say it again....I20 corridor being worked over extremely bad right now....I wouldn't be surprised to see the SPC drop alot of the northern extent from the MDT. Going t be very hard to get anything cellular going in this mess right now.
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This current line of storms impacting it are already overly precipitous vs. their modeled QPF.

I agree with you 100%.
 
Stormlover said:
well, I'm out of moderate, on the west side of huntsville...west ala is barely in slight now
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Most of west Alabama was already in the slight except for the southern part . Not much really changed except they bumped everything a little east

This was the early morning update NOT THE CURRENT
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Sglynx1 said:
This current line of storms impacting it are already overly precipitous vs. their modeled QPF.

I agree with you 100%.
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I can't help but wonder if this is true too. There is way more precip than modeled and it's increasing in coverage. I still think we clear out later but I never expected such widespread rain this morning.
 
Even some of the CAM models that were showing widespread precip along the I-20 corridor this morning cleared it out by lunchtime. It is WAY TOO EARLY to make foolish calls like "oh it's going to work over the atmosphere and the event will be a bust blah blah"

Very irresponsible at this point
 
From what the NWS said yesterday there would be multiple rounds of severe and then clearing later and the last round coming through being the worst and it seems it is doing exactly like they thought so far. I definitely hope that it somehow decreases the risk but I wouldn't let my guard down at all right now.
 
Looks like the severe threat has spread a little north this morning. Either way, looks really scary for Alabama and Georgia.
 
Kimberly said:
From what the NWS said yesterday there would be multiple rounds of severe and then clearing later and the last round coming through being the worst and it seems it is doing exactly like they thought so far. I definitely hope that it somehow decreases the risk but I wouldn't let my guard down at all right now.
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Yeah, storms early can work either way, either making things more stable, or making it more humid and worse for later in the day.
 
Storm5 said:
If the atmosphere is being worked over why is the SB and ML cape increasing??
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The moisture from what I am seeing is over abundant compared to the models, and because the humidity is higher, it is destabilizing the atmosphere in upper levels and at the surface. Just my guess though. Could also be because the warm front slowed, the moisture built up over the area, destabilizing everything.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The moisture from what I am seeing is over abundant compared to the models, and because the humidity is higher, it is destabilizing the atmosphere in upper levels and at the surface. Just my guess though.
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My question more sarcastic . This whole the rain is working over the atmosphere talk is silly if you look at the actual observations across the southeast including warm front position and the surge of dew points south along with the increase in cape
 
GTWXAlum said:
Even some of the CAM models that were showing widespread precip along the I-20 corridor this morning cleared it out by lunchtime. It is WAY TOO EARLY to make foolish calls like "oh it's going to work over the atmosphere and the event will be a bust blah blah"

Very irresponsible at this point
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Who said it was going to bust....I just pointed out am observation. The only thing foolish is your interpretation of my comment.
 
DadOfJax said:
Who said it was going to bust....I just pointed out am observation. The only thing foolish is your interpretation of my comment.
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Well keep in mind this is not a normal severe event. Normally you would be right, but not this time.
 
Storm5 said:
If the atmosphere is being worked over why is the SB and ML cape increasing??
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No one is saying the threat is decreasing, only that this could inhibit the advection of CAPE northward, thus limiting the threat.

If people are speaking as fact, I agree that it's shortsighted and foolish.

Please no e-fighting!
 
Going to check on a job in mount olive and there are peaks of blue sky.

There has been some wicked lightning driving from Bessemer up here to where I am now.
 
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