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Severe Severe Threat April 5th-7th

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Yeah, not liking the rainout shifting to the north of CAE this HRRR run... with isolated cells coming in here. I will trust the HRRR with this stuff vs other guidance and heed the idea that around 11AM onward, we could be seeing some weather here.
 
It's going to be a tough day tomorrow for some folks. I thought originally that NC would be spared from this one, but I am not so sure now. All will depend on how warm it gets tomorrow before the main show
 
HRRR really surging cape and dew/temps here. Interesting. This throws a kink into my pessimism
 
I unpinned a few threads to make it less hectic. I will reorganize them and they will be pinned again Thursday


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00z HRRR is a bit underwhelming. You can see storms starting to fire at the very end in eastern Mississippi along the dry line but it's for sure not as eye popping as other models have been


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00z NAM is really starting to fire storms further west in Alabama tomorrow afternoon


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SoutheastRidge said:
So you say there hasn't been a high risk north of South GA since they changed the scales. That means even places like Oklahoma and Kansas havent been under a high risk ?
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I hoped and prayed you were only around and super annoying during snow, guess I was wrong! :(
 
SPC tends to wait to see where the storms start to fire before putting out a high risk area...If there is enough model consistency to pull trigger at 7a they may but its rare too see
 
Just watched David chandley's update he's got the worst from 20 south early and then it's completely random from then on. Tons of small cells coming up everywhere. According to their map one will be right on top of Atlanta about 2 pm.

Definitely going to be an interesting day.

By the way, everyone bashing glen burns, why? He's always seemed pretty reliable to me. Except snow.
 
In my case I ignore most non NOAA forecasts. Every now and then I look at the Accuweather long range for laughs but I've found that (when I have the motivation to do so) I can come to a conclusion on the forecast that isn't much different than what TWC or local guys can come to.
 
2 AM is past my limit, and it's when the SPC releases their update. I'll just be interested in seeing what that one looks in the morning (or is there three updates?).
 
Storm5 said:
Who's staying up to post the SPC update when it comes out? We have to take shifts lol
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This old man be out till 6a...

Gotta love this possible dry line setup...along and east of I-65 still appears to be area under the gun...warm front really beginning to lift north now per radars/dp's
 
Xtreme Weather said:
This old man be out till 6a...

Gotta love this possible dry line setup...along and east of I-65 still appears to be area under the gun...warm front really beginning to lift north now per radars/dp's
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lol I hear ya me too

Your in a great spot, will be interested to see what you end up with tomorrow afternoon
 
If it were to be right, 3k NAM is basically standing ground on I-65 and east being ground zero. Seems like it's suggesting 2 or 3 rounds overall, the final one being late at night - early Thursday morning (not in the western parts of the SE).
 
Soundings backed off just a hair looking at the SHARPy for Southeast TN...but still a significant threat across southern TN.

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Really need to watch storms along the warm front in the morning for tornadoes over central part of AL and W central GA plenty of backing of the winds for some rotating storms...then big show later in the day.

Side note current radar not a lot of "junk convection" ongoing will see how that looks in the a.m. But the less junk in the morning the better chance for explosive development later in the day...watch for the large hail as well peeps
 
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