• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Severe Severe Threat April 5th-7th

Webberweather53 said:
It occurs more often than you think, in fact, Georgia just went through a high risk this past January which ended up being their most prolific tornado outbreak in state history...
day1otlk_20170122_1630_prt.gif
Click to expand...

I definitely recall that. My wording was poor, I meant around the Atlanta area. I forgot about that January event. Other than that 1 I don't recall forecasts like this, maybe there have been
 
Phillip l said:
I definitely recall that. My wording was poor, I meant around the Atlanta area. I forgot about that January event. Other than that 1 I don't recall forecasts like this, maybe there have been
Click to expand...

Ah ok, yea there aren't too many... Climatologically this is true because in a majority of cases most systems bomb out and move through the TN/OH Valley and/or track further NE closer to the CAD dome in the Carolinas due to the southern end of the Appalachians disrupting (compressing) the atmospheric column as flow progresses over it, therefore causing low pressure areas to decay and/or form closer to the Atlantic coast, hence this is why GA tends to be in a relative hole wrt severe w/ appreciably higher tornado track densities over the central-eastern Carolinas (Carolina Alley) & MS, AL, north-central LA, southern AR (Dixie Alley).
 
Man, the SPC map I saw to open my day today was mic drop worthy. I can't imagine how worse it can get, though I suppose changing most of the moderate to high would do it.
 
pcbjr said:
Tor Con of even 1 isn't good at all :eek:
IMHO
Click to expand...

No kidding...Georgia seems overdue for a major outbreak. I haven't lived here that long (5 years or so), but I can recall seeing a bad outbreak during March of 2008. Was that the last significant tornado outbreak in N & Central GA?
 
Showmeyourtds said:
No kidding...Georgia seems overdue for a major outbreak. I haven't lived here that long (5 years or so), but I can recall seeing a bad outbreak during March of 2008. Was that the last significant tornado outbreak in N & Central GA?
Click to expand...
The April 2011 one was the last outbreak. I remember the 2008 outbreak. We had quarter sized hail and two tornado warnings in a row. It was one chaotic day, and per my neighbor the mesocyclone passed near our houses.
 
For those in East Tennessee and far North Georgia and NE Alabama...this is what's concerning, the increasing confidence and possible strong tornado:


...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Confidence is increasing in warm sector moisture return that will become supportive of weak to moderate CAPE, within at least a narrow pre-frontal plume overspreading the region from west to east Wednesday afternoon and evening. Aided by forcing within the exit region of a 70-90 kt cyclonic 500 mb jet, and strengthening of southerly 850 mb flow to 30-50 kt within the warm sector, the environment is expected to become conducive to discrete supercell storm development, at least initially. This is expected to be accompanied by a risk for large hail and a few tornadoes, some of which could be strong. Eventually, large-scale forcing may support upscale growing lines or clusters of storms accompanied by a more substantive risk for damaging wind gusts.

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk
 
My concern is shifting east. AL going to be on the fringe of this one I think. Anniston/Pell City down to Eufala ewd is under the gun.
 
Do you guys think Columbus Ga is going to be in a bad zone? I am headed down there and won't be in Atlanta tomorrow probably. I am wondering if they are gonna be more on the fringe since they are on the Al border. What do you guys think?
 
CoreyTheSecond said:
Do you guys think Columbus Ga is going to be in a bad zone? I am headed down there and won't be in Atlanta tomorrow probably. I am wondering if they are gonna be more on the fringe since they are on the Al border. What do you guys think?
Click to expand...

Going by SPC, you will not be in the clear tomorrow. That's actually an area that could get switched from moderate to high risk early tomorrow.

Everywhere east of I-65 seems like they're in a risk area for severe thunderstorms.
 
Please remember torcon is not recognized in the weather community outside of the weather channel . It's a made up index . I would not use that as a determining factor as to your severe weather plans


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
CoreyTheSecond said:
Do you guys think Columbus Ga is going to be in a bad zone? I am headed down there and won't be in Atlanta tomorrow probably. I am wondering if they are gonna be more on the fringe since they are on the Al border. What do you guys think?
Click to expand...
To much gets played into borders and severe weather outlines. All people in Alabama and Georgia and into South Carolina need to pay attention .

There is a tornado risk pretty much anywhere in the above mentioned states
 
Storm5 said:
Please remember torcon is not recognized in the weather community outside of the weather channel . It's a made up index . I would not use that as a determining factor as to your severe weather plans


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Absolutely right. I do use the tor con index as a "guideline" as Dr. Forbes doesn't usually miss but even still the SPC maps are definitely on a higher relevance scale.
 
Showmeyourtds said:
No kidding...Georgia seems overdue for a major outbreak. I haven't lived here that long (5 years or so), but I can recall seeing a bad outbreak during March of 2008. Was that the last significant tornado outbreak in N & Central GA?
Click to expand...

2011 for sure. That's the night an EF3 passed pretty close to my house. There was actually an EF5 that crossed from around Huntsville into north GA. From looking at the historical tornado data it seems that there have only been a handful of 5's in Georgia through recorded history and if I'm not mistaken there were 2 that night.

Hopefully tomorrow is nothing on that scale.
 
Phillip l said:
Absolutely right. I do use the tor con index as a "guideline" as Dr. Forbes doesn't usually miss but even still the SPC maps are definitely on a higher relevance scale.
Click to expand...
Yeah I'm not trashing dr Forbes and the work he's done just want to make sure our guests that might not have heard of his index don't think it's a good idea to go just on that index alone
 
Hi everyone...been a lurker for a while but I really appreciate all of your insights and have learned quite a bit from you all. I live in SE Huntsville, AL and was wondering what your opinions were based on the uncertainty of the morning storms. I know it's still up in the air, but when would you think we would have a better idea of the set up towards in the morning looking towards a bigger event in the afternoon? I remember back in 2011 how the first line really packed a punch and was curious if we were looking at a similar type of set up with a strong morning line and then isolated supercells in the afternoon? I appreciate any responses.
 
Storm5 said:
Yeah I'm not trashing dr Forbes and the work he's done just want to make sure our guests that might not have heard of his index don't think it's a good idea to go just on that index alone
Click to expand...

Excellent advice. Best to listen to the SPC and your local mets. No matter what this is an event where EVERYONE needs to be prepared to take cover.
 
The new WRFs

The ARW tempers the threat a little from 0z. Still serious but it wants to keep cape down. With lots of convection except for Central GA and SC which gets nailed.

The NMM on the other hand goes absolutely bonkers. Backs wind direction at both the surface and 850mb ahead of the dry line and blows up several very long track supercells from west AL/central TN and marches them east. Is it wrong to say that we should use this model because it puts a very strong/long track supercell over the F5 capital of the world?
 
i would be willing to be Reid's visa gift card that he won from the bracket challenge that the moderate risk gets pulled further NW in Alabama at some point today. Time frame seems to be slowing down a little which would allow for a bigger threat for the above mentioned area
 
Storm5 said:
i would be willing to be Reid's visa gift card that he won from the bracket challenge that the moderate risk gets pulled further NW in Alabama at some point today. Time frame seems to be slowing down a little which would allow for a bigger threat for the above mentioned area
Click to expand...
I agree. This threat looks more west than what the SPC shows right now, but it could be added on.
 
Wow the NMM is wild. The longest supercell tracks right over my family's backyard in NW GA (I don't mean my area). :( They could do without that...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top