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Severe Severe Threat April 5th-7th

ForsythSnow said:
I have the feeling that unless this slows, it will be the 10% of the time they don't weaken.
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Maybe you are right but there always seems to be something that ends up saving us in Georgia. Everything has to come perfectly together in order for us to have a major outbreak in GA.
 
RollTide18 said:
I hope the whole thing is a bust. If I don't mind asking, what are some of those factors that could inhibit the threat?
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Really the only mitigating factors is does convection hamper the movement of the warm front and limit instability and/or veer low level wind fields Read the BMX discussion.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Maybe you are right but there always seems to be something that ends up saving us in Georgia. Everything has to come perfectly together in order for us to have a major outbreak in GA.
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I was hearing per TWC FWIW that North Georgia and Alabama would have record levels of moisture tomorrow. Also, seeing the part about anything that forms in the afternoon and evening rotating per SPC seems to say that this threat is going to be far more significant than others. Also, the wedge usually helps save us, or the fact that the storms lose the daytime heating, which is the only thing I would bet on right now.
 
Sglynx1 said:
For west AL he's right. For east AL, it looks to be quite the threat.

There's also several mitigating factors still in play, so the entire thing may bust.
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I don't agree with this at all. There are a few mitigating factors but there are mitigating factors in all severe weather setups . Hell there were mitigating factors on 4/27. Obviously there will be areas in the outlook that are not impacted by severe weather at all, including in the moderate risk due to the scattered nature of the storms at least in the afternoon .
 
Arcc said:
Really the only mitigating factors is does convection hamper the movement of the warm front and limit instability and/or veer low level wind fields Read the BMX discussion.
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Agree with this, everything is setting up for a big day.
 
Storm5 said:
I don't agree with this at all. There are a few mitigating factors but there are mitigating factors in all severe weather setups . Hell there were mitigating factors on 4/27. Obviously there will be areas in the outlook that are not impacted by severe weather at all, including in the moderate risk due to the scattered nature of the storms at least in the afternoon .
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Was the mitigating factor on 4/27 the fact that there were storms that morning ?
 
Storm5 said:
Agree with this, everything is setting up for a big day.
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And the morning convection disruption issue I think would mostly be for north Georgia including Atlanta, all other areas outside of that have a much lesser chance of that being an issue
 
I remember the most about 4/27 was the initial first wave of storms and then the sun came out and it was hot as hell. A lot of people took it for granted and thought the threat was over...all the sun and clear skies did was blow up the afternoon and evening supercells...and we all know what happened that afternoon. Main point is don't let your guard down after the first wave in the morning. Stay weather aware all day.
 
GTWXAlum said:
And the morning convection disruption issue I think would mostly be for north Georgia including Atlanta, all other areas outside of that have a much lesser chance of that being an issue
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That could be a good thing, if it stays away from the higher population areas. Not to mention that I'll be about 5 minutes from hartsfield airport tomorrow. We had a warning go right over us on Monday, missed our area by feet.
 
jaymackd3 said:
I remember the most about 4/27 was the initial first wave of storms and then the sun came out and it was hot as hell. A lot of people took it for granted and thought the threat was over...all the sun and clear skies did was blow up the afternoon and evening supercells...and we all know what happened that afternoon. Main point is don't let your guard down after the first wave in the morning. Stay weather aware all day.
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Yep, where I am north of B'ham, the sun was out by 8-8:30am that morning. Plenty of time for recharging the atmosphere.
 
Snowfan said:
The sun in severe weather events can make conditions favorable.
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Unabated heating destabilizes the atmosphere and can do so quickly, with CAPE surging in areas with the GOM open for business and no cloud deck.

On 04/27, rapid destabilization provided the fuel for the storms to take advantage of the ridiculous helicity values already in place from the low lifting northeastward.

Tomorrow, there's no guarantee that the warm front will advect northeastward quickly enough to allow for the atmosphere to recharge. Furthermore, we don't know if showers will build westward along the periphery and provide for further tamping of the environment. One thing we've seen time and again with this year's southeast threats is that the extent of tropical complexes developing with unmitigated moisture transport available has been underdone by the models. For some reason these elevated complexes have flattened and spread like a tropical depression and suppressed the aggregation of CAPE.

This threat certainly could be significant, but there is also the potential for it to be choked into submission. I do believe there are still more questions than answers. I'm interested in the HRRR runs tonight. That will tell the tale.
 
Thinking of riding west from the Montgomery are out of harms way. How far into Mississippi should be relatively safe?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Glenn Burns is really hyping up tomorrow's event:
We will have tornadoes and damaging winds. There will be damage. There will be widespread power outages.
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He is really saying that this far out? I would think he would say that later this evening after the models have a better feel for what is happening than now. He probably won't be wrong given our chances however.
 
The HRRR is starting to get into range of the morning convection, its showing it really getting going from east central Alabama through west central Georgia by 10-11z tomorrow
 
ForsythSnow said:
He is really saying that this far out? I would think he would say that later this evening after the models have a better feel for what is happening than now. He probably won't be wrong given our chances however.
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On his facebook page.

Actually, all 5 of the WSB mets are going nuts in facebook.
 
GTWXAlum said:
The HRRR is starting to get into range of the morning convection, its showing it really getting going from east central Alabama through west central Georgia by 10-11z tomorrow
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Early impressions doesn't show much differences between 3k Nam at 11z compared to HRRR out to 11z perhap HRRR prec. is a little more east but STP is very similar
 
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Threat level update!
 
stormcentral said:
People are starting to react on facebook. And they are all scared. Im scared for us all.
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There really isn't any reason to be scared . We go through threats like this almost every year. Being prepared is far not important than being scared . Some places in the outlines area won't even deal with severe weather . So the only thing to do at this point is be prepared and stay alert
 
Storm5 said:
There really isn't any reason to be scared . We go through threats like this almost every year. Being prepared is far not important than being scared . Some places in the outlines area won't even deal with severe weather . So the only thing to do at this point is be prepared and stay alert
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Alabama goes through threats like this but not Georgia !
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Alabama goes through threats like this but not Georgia !
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Georgia has been through threats like this before . It's not like this has never happened .

I just can't wait for the people that yell bust tomorrow because their backyard is not impacted . Those are the idiots i can't stand after a severe weather threat
 
Storm5 said:
Georgia has been through threats like this before . It's not like this has never happened .

I just can't wait for the people that yell bust tomorrow because their backyard is not impacted . Those are the idiots i can't stand after a severe weather threat
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They will be out in full force
 
Parker said:
They will be out in full force
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Yeah, after the storms went tornadic yesterday, I changed my mind on calling it a bust. Tomorrow is going to be a dangerous day for sure. Everyone should be paying attention to this, but not freaking out. Paying attention to what is happening is the best we can do.
 
Storm5 said:
There really isn't any reason to be scared . We go through threats like this almost every year. Being prepared is far not important than being scared . Some places in the outlines area won't even deal with severe weather . So the only thing to do at this point is be prepared and stay alert
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I'm half and half with you. I've made my preparations at this point and am headed to my inlaws house very shortly. They've got a brick home with a basement, I don't. Still though, staring down a situation like this is still nerve wracking.
 
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