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Severe Severe Threat 4-13/14

Looks like JAN is expanding the Slight Risk area to include portions of MS according to afternoon AFD. Let's see if SPC does the same.


Attention then shifts to the main weather concern for the week as a
strong cold front pushes through the ArkLaMiss Friday into Saturday.
Pacific jet energy will dive through the Great Basin Thursday night
and help carve out a digging/amplifying trough over the Desert
Southwest by Friday morning with a closed mid/upper-level low over
the Northern Plains. Southerly flow ahead of the advancing system
will help usher in upper 60s dewpoints across the area beneath
strong height falls of 60m/12hr. Timing differences remain with the
GFS slightly faster compared to the ECMWF, however the overall
consensus is that severe weather will be possible Friday into
Saturday as the front pushes through. Strong forcing, ample
instability (SBCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg), 50kts of deep layer shear
oriented off the boundary, a stout 50-60kt low-level jet, and steep
mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km will support all modes of severe
weather with tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail all possible.
Will continue to advertise the severe weather threat with the
ongoing "Slight risk" area but will expand it further east to
encompass the I-55 corridor and add a "Marginal risk" for the
remainder of the area east of I-55. While locally heavy rainfall
cannot be ruled out, the frontal passage looks to remain fast enough
to preclude a greater flash flooding threat. A much cooler and drier
airmass will quickly filter in behind the front by Saturday evening
with cooler and drier weather heading into the beginning of next
work week.
 
1st sign something mischievous is amis with potential for severe weather in your area.... The appearance of what appears to be a hurricane hunter aircraft making many passes over your area, still 5 days out from forecasted time of development.
 
Hpdb301 said:
1st sign something mischievous is amis with potential for severe weather in your area.... The appearance of what appears to be a hurricane hunter aircraft making many passes over your area, still 5 days out from forecasted time of development.
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Weather manipulation is a real thing.
 
I know I ask this once, but where TENNESSEE? "our poster" haven't heard from him in a while. This is where he'll be at with severe weather.
 
I think it's Bruce. Because I've read posts by the name of Bruce on Tennesseewx.com and he's posted the exact same thing, word for word, on here before. He's still posting on there.
 
I hope we don't have thunderstorms overnight Friday night and/or early Saturday morning in Middle TN. I like to sleep in on Saturdays.
 
Brad Travis sure hyping this up when all the others say heavy rain event
 
stormcentral said:
Whats everyone's thoughts as of now
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Largely the same as it has been for the past four or five days with the threat being largely a potent squall line. As always the possibility of a isolated supercell ahead of the line will have the greatest tornado threat, but with the trough orientation and high amplitude, strong forcing, almost unidirectional winds from 850mb to 500mb and the orientation of the intersection of the upper level winds and the surface boundary; it will be hard for them to not be rapidly overtaken or morph into multicellular clusters.

So the line itself will be the threat with high winds and isolated tornadoes. That said even in the early morning hours, the Euro still has SBcapes over 1000 across AL.
 
stormcentral said:
Wow...hyping a severe event in April in the beginning of severe season NO WAY? Its a legitimate threat. Enhanced DAY 3
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Well I used the wrong wording I was just saying no one else was saying much so it's very confusing especially since it was days out but I know now models seem to be trending more severe so Brad is doing great
 
I have a Bass tournament on Pickwick lake Saturday, based on the last GFS run it looks like Storms will start around our take off time 6:30a.m. l don't have access to the EURO' those that do, is it about the same time frame?
 
sigwx said:
I have a Bass tournament on Pickwick lake Saturday, based on the last GFS run it looks like Storms will start around our take off time 6:30a.m. l don't have access to the EURO' those that do, is it about the same time frame?
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I have one on Lay. I know last night's Euro looked like I may get half the day in dry...but I didn't pay attention up that way...but 630 sounds about right.
 
Enhanced risk for Saturday looks like the worse is staying south of North Alabama
 
New day 3
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One thing to note I'm not a fan of the NWS and SPC disagreeing when it come to the products they are issuing. People have a hard enough time understanding and taking forecasts seriously. We don't need people worrying and splitting hairs over the fact that SPC has them under an enhanced risk while their local NWS office has them in a slight risk. Their has to be a way for them to reach a consensus.
 
Darklordsuperstorm said:
One thing to note I'm not a fan of the NWS and SPC disagreeing when it come to the products they are issuing. People have a hard enough time understanding and taking forecasts seriously. We don't need people worrying and splitting hairs over the fact that SPC has them under an enhanced risk while their local NWS office has them in a slight risk. Their has to be a way for them to reach a consensus.
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true, and I agree, but your profile pic is very distracting, so much that I don't care if a tornado blows as long as she knows that I just don't know...
 
It appears there will multiple rounds of heavy rainfall and severe storms in AL TN starting early saturday to AM on sunday. #FirstAlert WX ill be chasing, tracking.
 
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