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Severe Severe Threat 3/31-4/3

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jrips27 said:
Way too early for this man. Let's check back around 10-11pm. Just takes a couple of storms to get going and this was always going to be an after dark threat
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Our storms probably have not even formed yet. This reminds me of maybe a weaker version of November 2002 or March 2012 when things really only got going after dark in Alabama and Georgia. Our storms should start to appear around 9 pm or so. GSP is certainly not backing off and if they are right, it would take just 1 cell to cause major problems since they seem to think the storms may follow I-85. That would put Greenville and Spartanburg in play.
 
Storms now going up west of Montgomery AL will most likely be the ones Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina need to watch. The airmass in most of this area is untouched so far and is closer to the Gulf so moisture return should not be an issue.
 
TN Valley into the Southeast...
Thermodynamic conditions in this region are a bit more favorable
than those farther north, supported by mid 60s dewpoints reaching
into southern middle TN. Even so, poor lapse rates still limit the
overall buoyancy, with recent mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE below
1500 J/kg across the region. General expectation is for storm
coverage to increase this evening, particularly across AL and GA.
Wind profiles remain supportive of organized storms, with damaging
gusts and tornadoes possible throughout the evening and tonight.

Latest update
 
Haven’t really been paying this any attention. Is this gonna be something to watch or a nothing burger for upstate sc?
 
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SUMMARY...A cluster of strong thunderstorms over west-central AL may
intensify in the next hour or two, posing a risk of a few tornadoes
and wind damage.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms that formed over southeast
MS has now moved into west-central and southwest AL. The air mass
ahead of these storms continues to moisten with dewpoints in the mid
60s now as far north as BHM. Meanwhile, an intensifying southerly
low-level jet is focusing across southern/central AL as shown by
regional VAD data. Recent hodographs from the BMX/MXX/EOX radars
show large, looping shear profiles with 0-3km SRH values of 300-400
m2/s2. 00z RAOBs from BMX/FFC showed a deep warm-layer from 0-4km,
that has thus far limited updrafts strength. However, model
guidance suggests this layer will cool somewhat in the next 1-2
hours, allowing more robust convection. Both the HRRR and recent
WoFS runs show the corridor from the current storms eastward to the
south of the BHM area toward the western ATL suburbs as having a
relatively greater threat in the next few hours for severe storms
including a few tornadoes.
 
jrips27 said:
View attachment 147299



SUMMARY...A cluster of strong thunderstorms over west-central AL may
intensify in the next hour or two, posing a risk of a few tornadoes
and wind damage.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms that formed over southeast
MS has now moved into west-central and southwest AL. The air mass
ahead of these storms continues to moisten with dewpoints in the mid
60s now as far north as BHM. Meanwhile, an intensifying southerly
low-level jet is focusing across southern/central AL as shown by
regional VAD data. Recent hodographs from the BMX/MXX/EOX radars
show large, looping shear profiles with 0-3km SRH values of 300-400
m2/s2. 00z RAOBs from BMX/FFC showed a deep warm-layer from 0-4km,
that has thus far limited updrafts strength. However, model
guidance suggests this layer will cool somewhat in the next 1-2
hours, allowing more robust convection. Both the HRRR and recent
WoFS runs show the corridor from the current storms eastward to the
south of the BHM area toward the western ATL suburbs as having a
relatively greater threat in the next few hours for severe storms
including a few tornadoes.
Click to expand...
That’d be the one
 
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