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Severe Severe Threat 3/31-4/3
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
This feels like one of those scenarios where all the news/ social focus is on northern areas but the southern side overperforms and becomes just as dangerous
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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I will likely be chasing Eastern VA tomorrow
Showmeyourtds
Member
If the sun pops out across northern GA this afternoon, this could get interesting. Cloud cover will certainly limit instability values otherwise
Don’t love the look of this stuff ahead of the line. Looks messy though so perhaps that’s the limiting factor
WXinCanton
Member
Its on almost all models. That stuff out front should be our biggest concern IMO
I’m curious to see if this activity around I-20 verifies. HRRR here
It will interesting if the line wants to segment somewhat and become semi-discrete as the 500mb wind vector becomes more WSW vs SW late tonight into early in the morning.
FFC taking extra soundings at 18z, 21z, and 03z in addition to the usual 0z
Psalm 148:8
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I wonder if BMX will?
80 degrees here in downtown Atlanta
Current satellite
Current satellite
tractor girl
Member
81 here in Athens
Turd Ferguson
Member
Not too worried about NC tomorrow if we get some rain in the morning and it takes a while to clear.
Turd Ferguson
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weatherfide
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79, dewpoint of 62 near Fayetteville, GA. HRRR backed down on helicity on 17z run.
Yeah 17-18z HRRR has looked tamer. Wonder if that’s the beginning of a trend. 3k NAM should be rolling here shortly
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
256 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024
...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024
Key Messages:
-A potent storm system will produce a severe weather threat
beginning this evening and lasting through the overnight hours for
portions of north and central Georgia. The severe threat will
progress southeastward through the early morning hours on Wednesday.
All modes of severe weather will be possible.
-Portions of northwest and western central Georgia (including the
metro Atlanta, Columbus, and Macon areas) are under a 10% TOR hatch
where strong (greater than EF2) tornadoes will be possible.
-Northwest and western central Georgia are most likely to see strong
damaging wind gusts early this evening and through the overnight
hours with the damaging wind threat progressing southeast through
the early morning hours.
-Large hail (greater than 1 inch) will be possible in storms
areawide where the greatest chances will be across far northwest
Georgia.
-As the bulk of the storms are expected to move through during the
nighttime hours while many people may be sleeping, it is incredibly
important to ensure you have more than 1 way to receive warnings
this evening.
A nocturnal severe weather threat is expected to play out over
portions of north and central Georgia tonight lasting through the
early morning hours on Wednesday. The strengthening surface low is
currently over central Illinois with the warm front draped over
central Indiana and central Ohio, dipping southward into southern
Virginia. While generally cloudy skies have been in place today,
middle and high clouds have not been as present as previously
thought. Breaks in coverage in the low level cumulus field have
allowed diurnal surface heating to take place early this afternoon.
The extent to which heating may occur will play a role in the
surface based available potential energy for thunderstorms that are
expected to fire off this afternoon. In this morning`s 12Z sounding,
a significant cap was in place at 850mb. This cap is still evident
in this afternoon`s 18Z sounding, but is expected to erode through
the late afternoon in the presence of cold air advection aloft,
warming surface temperatures as high as the low 80s across much of
north and central Georgia, and moisture return at the lower levels
(dewpoints as high as 65 along and south of I-20).
The severe weather threat will begin with a line of storms
approaching form the northwest this afternoon. Across northwest
Georgia, surface based CAPE across northwest Georgia will run
between 500-750 J/kg where 50+kt of shear and 0-1km SRH between 150-
300+ m2/s2 are also progged. CAMs suggest a secondary wave later
this evening after sunset for areas further south across western
central Georgia as isolated discrete cells ahead of the main line
will eventually congeal with the initial line. This general timing
of these cells coincide with the of the 850mb low
level jet (wind speeds between 50 and 60kt), 0-1 SRH exceeding 200
m2/s2, and an unusual surge of surface based instability northward
from the Columbus area to the ATL metro during the overnight hours.
This instability within an increasingly favorable kinematic
parameter space late this afternoon through the early evening hours
have resulted in SPC progging an Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5)
for much of northwestern Georgia and western Georgia. All modes and
hazards of severe weather are expected with strong damaging wind
gusts (beginning first across north Georgia and spreading
southeastward through the early morning hours across central
Georgia), large hail 1 inch or greater across the entirety of the
area (far northwest Georgia is at the greatest risk), and the
potential for isolated tornadoes. In particular, locations across
northwestern and western central Georgia are at risk (as indicated
by the 10% TOR hatch from SPC) for strong tornadoes (EF2 or greater)
through the overnight hours. While the risk for flash flooding is
low, some locations may see rain rates sufficient to produce
localized flash flooding in the usual problematic spots.
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
256 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024
...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024
Key Messages:
-A potent storm system will produce a severe weather threat
beginning this evening and lasting through the overnight hours for
portions of north and central Georgia. The severe threat will
progress southeastward through the early morning hours on Wednesday.
All modes of severe weather will be possible.
-Portions of northwest and western central Georgia (including the
metro Atlanta, Columbus, and Macon areas) are under a 10% TOR hatch
where strong (greater than EF2) tornadoes will be possible.
-Northwest and western central Georgia are most likely to see strong
damaging wind gusts early this evening and through the overnight
hours with the damaging wind threat progressing southeast through
the early morning hours.
-Large hail (greater than 1 inch) will be possible in storms
areawide where the greatest chances will be across far northwest
Georgia.
-As the bulk of the storms are expected to move through during the
nighttime hours while many people may be sleeping, it is incredibly
important to ensure you have more than 1 way to receive warnings
this evening.
A nocturnal severe weather threat is expected to play out over
portions of north and central Georgia tonight lasting through the
early morning hours on Wednesday. The strengthening surface low is
currently over central Illinois with the warm front draped over
central Indiana and central Ohio, dipping southward into southern
Virginia. While generally cloudy skies have been in place today,
middle and high clouds have not been as present as previously
thought. Breaks in coverage in the low level cumulus field have
allowed diurnal surface heating to take place early this afternoon.
The extent to which heating may occur will play a role in the
surface based available potential energy for thunderstorms that are
expected to fire off this afternoon. In this morning`s 12Z sounding,
a significant cap was in place at 850mb. This cap is still evident
in this afternoon`s 18Z sounding, but is expected to erode through
the late afternoon in the presence of cold air advection aloft,
warming surface temperatures as high as the low 80s across much of
north and central Georgia, and moisture return at the lower levels
(dewpoints as high as 65 along and south of I-20).
The severe weather threat will begin with a line of storms
approaching form the northwest this afternoon. Across northwest
Georgia, surface based CAPE across northwest Georgia will run
between 500-750 J/kg where 50+kt of shear and 0-1km SRH between 150-
300+ m2/s2 are also progged. CAMs suggest a secondary wave later
this evening after sunset for areas further south across western
central Georgia as isolated discrete cells ahead of the main line
will eventually congeal with the initial line. This general timing
of these cells coincide with the of the 850mb low
level jet (wind speeds between 50 and 60kt), 0-1 SRH exceeding 200
m2/s2, and an unusual surge of surface based instability northward
from the Columbus area to the ATL metro during the overnight hours.
This instability within an increasingly favorable kinematic
parameter space late this afternoon through the early evening hours
have resulted in SPC progging an Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5)
for much of northwestern Georgia and western Georgia. All modes and
hazards of severe weather are expected with strong damaging wind
gusts (beginning first across north Georgia and spreading
southeastward through the early morning hours across central
Georgia), large hail 1 inch or greater across the entirety of the
area (far northwest Georgia is at the greatest risk), and the
potential for isolated tornadoes. In particular, locations across
northwestern and western central Georgia are at risk (as indicated
by the 10% TOR hatch from SPC) for strong tornadoes (EF2 or greater)
through the overnight hours. While the risk for flash flooding is
low, some locations may see rain rates sufficient to produce
localized flash flooding in the usual problematic spots.
weatherfide
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I think the system is running low on CAPE. No tornado warned storms at this hour in the tornado watch areas. Also, nothing seems to be "spinning"... no couplets..just looks like an average cold front to me so far. More CAPE progged down by the coast in AL later, so we shall see if that results in anything significant.