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Severe Severe potential April 13th-15th Palm Sunday Weekend

I know the line suppose to weaken as it moves east later but dang 80/70 with ssw gusting to 25....it feels primed out

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I'll be surprised if this doesn't go tor warned soon...
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Tornado Watch
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 62
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019

TORNADO WATCH 62 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NCC001-003-005-023-025-027-033-035-037-045-051-057-059-063-067-
069-071-077-081-085-089-093-097-101-105-109-111-119-123-125-127-
135-145-149-151-157-159-161-163-167-169-171-175-181-183-191-193-
195-197-150000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0062.190414T1820Z-190415T0000Z/

NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALAMANCE ALEXANDER ALLEGHANY
BURKE CABARRUS CALDWELL
CASWELL CATAWBA CHATHAM
CLEVELAND CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON
DAVIE DURHAM FORSYTH
FRANKLIN GASTON GRANVILLE
GUILFORD HARNETT HENDERSON
HOKE IREDELL JOHNSTON
LEE LINCOLN MCDOWELL
MECKLENBURG MONTGOMERY MOORE
NASH ORANGE PERSON
POLK RANDOLPH ROCKINGHAM
ROWAN RUTHERFORD SAMPSON
STANLY STOKES SURRY
TRANSYLVANIA VANCE WAKE
WAYNE WILKES WILSON
YADKIN
$$
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 62
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019

TORNADO WATCH 62 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

VAC009-011-019-023-029-031-035-037-063-067-083-089-141-143-161-
163-530-590-678-680-690-770-775-150000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0062.190414T1820Z-190415T0000Z/

VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AMHERST APPOMATTOX BEDFORD
BOTETOURT BUCKINGHAM CAMPBELL
CARROLL CHARLOTTE FLOYD
FRANKLIN HALIFAX HENRY
PATRICK PITTSYLVANIA ROANOKE
ROCKBRIDGE


VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

BUENA VISTA DANVILLE LEXINGTON
LYNCHBURG MARTINSVILLE ROANOKE
SALEM
$$


ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...
 
We have been getting some decent sun all afternoon over the coastal plains. Really gonna have to see what kind if convection can maintain in the juicy air.
 
Pulled off in Black Mountain for a bathroom break. Looks like I am leaving the severe storms behind me, but it has been raining like crazy almost the whole way. Hate driving in this mess.
 
I made it home in one piece, at least so far. Kept a periodic eye on the radar for a while with a plan of telling my dad to get off the interstate if there was a tornado warning in my pathway, but there was only one case that got a little iffy and it was around lunchtime. I was eating at the KFC in Covington around noon, and the winds picked up to where it was a bit eerie for a few minutes and made me stop eating for a moment.

Now, a comment on the short range models from someone that was on I-75 in the morning as well. They were soooo wrong lol. It was straight up moderate to heavy rain nonstop on 75 from about Cartersville through Atlanta from about 10-11:30 AM. The visibility got to where it was awful at times. Convection might have tampered down the severe weather threat, but the rain did NOT go away. I saw lightning flash a couple times, once in my eyes, but it seems like there was only spots where it got iffy (dad thought he drove through a severe thunderstorm while I was napping, there was debris on the interstate and he had to change lanes to avoid some big debris).

I'm pretty good at seeing questionable storms on regular radar. There was 1 more questionable storm that we could've driven through that turned into a tornado warning in north Columbia County, and I saw it as questionable before it got there and commented on it.
 
The weather is no doubt bad for many, and prayers are with any and all impacted in any manner ...

Just watching videos and radar from afar is more than a bit disheartening, to say the very least.

Yet, this being a weather board, and for any that are interested in the dynamics, I offer the following (which are too big to post as .gifs, and hence are time sensitive) ...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-99.29,49.14,586

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-99.29,49.14,605

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-74.81,35.71,1907

They do shed some visual light on the forces at work.

Again, best and prayers to and for anyone who is in any way in a bad spot ...
 
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Just breezy. Have had no precip for a while. By no means a bust, still got the 2nd line
 
No snow for you said:
I think the bad stuff is suppose to roll in about 7 tonight. Sun is popping out and with as much cape as we have that’s not a good thing.
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I just thought all the moderate rain I’ve had, would work over the air? GSP says models are concerning, but lack of radar development, gives them pause
 
Some activity is starting to percolate out of the CU field on the GA/AL border

It's a race against time as far as whether it can organize before moving through here.
 
Tarheel1 said:
I just thought all the moderate rain I’ve had, would work over the air? GSP says models are concerning, but lack of radar development, gives them pause
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Could the models be wrong? Sure they are wrong all the time about snow. But if you walk outside you can just feel the air. I would still bet on storms rolling through later tonight.
 
Sun coming out really isn’t a good thing. I do think there will be a round two.


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The thing that's going to be most worrisome going forward in the areas that clear for a while is the storms that are starting to develop in Georgia based off radar. Will there be enough there for them to rotate?
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
The thing that's going to be most worrisome going forward in the areas that clear for a while is the storms that are starting to develop in Georgia based off radar. Will there be enough there for them to rotate?
Click to expand...

Hrrr shows them picking up strength as they head east.


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With sun in and out.. now 79 DP 70.. Winds keep swinging SW to SE at times.. so with that anything that develops far enough south with be needing to be watched
 
The new Nam and HRRR are worrisome ... I’m already seeing very strong winds outside in any thunderstorm here at UNCC campus .. models seeing what looks to be a squall line of maybe even super cells .. check of the difference the 18z Nam is in regards to wind gust parameters than the 12z was in a short matter of time
 

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Nick_boynton_ said:
The new Nam and HRRR are worrisome ... I’m already seeing very strong winds outside in any thunderstorm here at UNCC campus .. models seeing what looks to be a squall line of maybe even super cells .. check of the difference the 18z Nam is in regards to wind gust parameters than the 12z was in a short matter of time
Click to expand...
Had a gust of 33mph here earlier
 
Athens is neither in the TOR watch or the ST watch.... we will see if the line can make this far east like the NAM and HRRR show.

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