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Severe Severe potential April 13th-15th Palm Sunday Weekend

Snowflowxxl said:
Agree, I was more referring to the people talking after your initial post
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Understood. I do think though that that initial band of storms, its outflow/cool pool, and potential gulf convection will create a forecast headache from Al east. You could really see those factors driving the potential for severe weather up or down across a good part of the region

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Something else to note. Is if there isn’t a solid line. Or wide spread severe weather over Georgia and Carolinas. There still likely be a few isolated individual storm cells that could try to rotate. It’s really a tricky forecast


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Has the system speeded up too that also limits the risk if so James Paul dice said faster moving
 
SouthATLwx said:
So maybe the words "look awfully silly" were a poor choice. I should have said such an outcome puts the Enhanced Risks area on Sunday "into question."
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I expect a downgrade tomorrow to slight risk probably I just dont see an enhanced risk if the gulf storms form
 
These weather models are going to induce early hair loss for me by making me pull my hair out. ? lol. 00z HRRR is almost halfway through so will see how a good bit of alabama convection unfolds i imagine.
 
Zander98al said:
These weather models are going to induce early hair loss for me by making me pull my hair out. ? lol. 00z HRRR is almost halfway through so will see how a good bit of alabama convection unfolds i imagine.
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This is why I hate systems with the SSW flow aloft with a strong trough in this position.
 
Arcc said:
Really not a crazy solution. Those have happened several times and could actually be the storm of the day. Although I could see it happening farther west.
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Itll be a hectic day for sure tomorrow.
 
Rain Cold said:
This is not uncommon. Getting a few severe-warned storms when there’s no watch is pretty routine.

Anyway, I like the rain every few days during pollen season.
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Well, it has not been uncommon the past few years. Why I have said it seems we get more severe storms and warnings around here now when we're not under a watch than when we are.
 
SD said:
The sim radar on the 3k does show a decrease across Alabama as the gulf convection continues
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Hate seeing that in winter, but great to have happen with a chance of severe weather. That may be the only hope we have for not having a bad outbreak.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Hate seeing that in winter, but great to have happen with a chance of severe weather. That may be the only hope we have for not having a bad outbreak.
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It could play the reverse roll as well though into sunday afternoon as the remnant outflow would be a good initiation point for isolated/scattered storms in a setup that's more favorable for supercells ahead of the main band of storms

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SD said:
It could play the reverse roll as well though into sunday afternoon as the remnant outflow would be a good initiation point for isolated/scattered storms in a setup that's more favorable for supercells ahead of the main band of storms

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Agreed.

If there's sneaky potential anywhere on Sunday, it would be in SC/NC.
 
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