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September Sizzling Summer Segway

Overnight models are still all over the place on what will evolve in the LR (in terms of heat/humidity). Still focusing more on the medium range, which is continuing to show a very nice Labor Day weekend for many of us. From RAH:

Medium range guidance remains bullish on the cold front moving
southeast across central NC on Friday night and then reaching the
coast as far south as KILM and KMYR by daybreak Saturday. A
noticeably cooler and drier air mass will build into the region for
the weekend and into Monday. Dry conditions are expected through the
weekend other than a lingering shower across the southern Coastal
Plain and Sandhills in proximity to the front near the coast. With
increased confidence that the front will push through our area, have
adjusted temperatures down a couple of degrees. Highs will range in
the lower to mid 80s on Saturday and Sunday with morning lows in the
lower to mid 60s with a few upper 50s possible.
 
Very foggy this AM. Haven't had a real foggy morning in a while
 
Sleet City USA said:
Very foggy this AM. Haven't had a real foggy morning in a while
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We could see many more foggy mornings in the extended. If the warmer model solution pans out, we'll have many days with dew points in the 70s. (This time of year) We're quickly losing the suns energy (insolation) to heat the air. Overnight lows can quickly get down to the dew point (saturation) and then allow fog to form. Lets hope for no foggy mornings in the extended.
 
FallsLake said:
We could see many more foggy mornings in the extended. If the warmer model solution pans out, we'll have many days with dew points in the 70s. (This time of year) We're quickly losing the suns energy (insolation) to heat the air. Overnight lows can quickly get down to the dew point (saturation) and then allow fog to form. Lets hope for no foggy mornings in the extended.
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We hate fog now
 
GFS is back to a morning in the 40s here. Just like in winter it will be back and forth on how far the front makes it.
 
Hopefully the 12z Euro will move towards the GFS in mid-range... is it just me or did those models switch places in the past 2 days?
 
Messy watching the models try to figure out the amplitude of the western ridge and the down stream pattern. Really reminds me of winter where we see the big trough at D10 but as we get close to verification the western ridge gets shorter and shorter and the base of the trough slowly trends west while the jet enhanced jet more zonal jet keeps the northern half of the jet rocking through. All in all some semblance of cooler likely limps into the SE but I would be hard pressed to see the near record cold stuff some of the models are showing.
 
GFS gives us a reprieve from the mid 90’s we are currently having to endure.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
ATLwxfan said:
GFS gives us a reprieve from the mid 90’s we are currently having to endure.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Last year we were well into October while praying for lower dew points in the long range, I'm going to enjoy this early Sept taste of fall.
 
Looking at the ensembles nothing really jumps off the page heat wise around here after Friday. Yeah it might be above normal but we are losing 3 degrees on our average high every 10 days. Tempering back to days of 82-87 is fine with me, I don't want to be stuck in another September with highs constantly in the 90s with occasional near 100s
Wouldn't be at all surprised to see 50s away from the urban centers on Monday
 
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SD said:
Looking at the ensembles nothing really jumps off the page heat wise around here after Friday. Yeah it might be above normal but we are losing 3 degrees on our average high every 10 days. Tempering back to days of 82-87 is fine with me, I don't want to be stuck in another September with highs constantly in the 90s with occasional near 100s
Wouldn't be at all surprised to see 50s away from the urban centers on Monday
Click to expand...
I have a reading of 89/82 = HI109 currently
 
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