Tropical PTC8

[GaWx]

12Z Euro: landfall Georgetown tomorrow night at 1006 mb

12Z UKMET : NC at 1009 but not til Tue afternoon:
TROPICAL STORM 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 31.4N 77.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2024 0 31.4N 77.3W 1010 33
0000UTC 16.09.2024 12 31.4N 79.1W 1009 37
1200UTC 16.09.2024 24 31.8N 79.0W 1009 36
0000UTC 17.09.2024 36 31.8N 79.2W 1009 30
1200UTC 17.09.2024 48 33.3N 77.6W 1009 34
0000UTC 18.09.2024 60 35.4N 76.4W 1009 30
1200UTC 18.09.2024 72 38.1N 77.2W 1009 24
0000UTC 19.09.2024 84 39.5N 77.7W 1009 19
1200UTC 19.09.2024 96 CEASED TRACKING

 

[Downeastnc]

at least one pretty well-defined LLC on recon

 

[GaWx]

There is a pretty tight spin that appears per satellite/radar to be just SE of 32N, 78W. Is that at the surface? Is it tropical? Recon will tell us more. Could go straight to STS or TS.
12Z ICON appears to me to be too far east and GFS too far NE based on that spin.

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

49 kt SFMR and 49 kt FL winds, sufficient for a current intensity of at least 45 kt. If recon manages to find a center it'd be a direct upgrade.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Starting to see a cluster come together between the grand strand and Charleston

 

[GaWx]

49 kt SFMR and 49 kt FL winds, sufficient for a current intensity of at least 45 kt. If recon manages to find a center it'd be a direct upgrade.

It’s tricky because even if there were no LLC the high to the N would on its own be causing brisk winds though maybe not 49 knots.

 

[Downeastnc]

There is a pretty tight spin that appears per satellite/radar to be just SE of 32N, 78W. Is that at the surface? Is it tropical? Recon will tell us more. Could go straight to STS or TS.
12Z ICON appears to me to be too far east and GFS too far NE based on that spin.

Recon seems a bit SW of the radar swirl with the SLC, its hard to tell how much though...though the winds at the surface under the mlc support a TS the fact they are 100 miles NE of the center support a more hybrid look still....

 

[SD]

I think it's still strung out W to E looking at recon

 

[Downeastnc]

I think it's still strung out W to E looking at recon

Yeah or the surface low is reforming just north of that last east to west path they flew with the wind turn....pressure was 1007 at the surface there...sucks there is missing data right before that

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

The 18Z HRRR brings it onshore near Little River, SC and literally follows the state line and stalls it out near Gastonia, Nc.

 

[GaWx]

Assuming I’m decoding recon data correctly, I’m seeing W winds at 20 knots at 31.6N, 77.7W and extrapolated SLP of 1007.4 mb. Should be enough for an upgrade to T or ST unless I’m misinterpreting.

 

[LickWx]

12z hrrrView attachment 151103

Hopefully we get three times that, would be awesome if places that snagged over a foot from Debby snag another foot! Record wet year

 

[Brent]

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cylone Eight, located offshore of the Southeast U.S. coastline, at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC).

 

[Snowfan]

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cylone Eight, located offshore of the Southeast U.S. coastline, at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC).

Was wondering if they will do that.

 

[Stormsfury]

Assuming I’m decoding recon data correctly, I’m seeing W winds at 20 knots at 31.6N, 77.7W and extrapolated SLP of 1007.4 mb. Should be enough for an upgrade to T or ST unless I’m misinterpreting.

If anything is upgraded. Subtropical. Its embedded upper level environment is purely cyclonic.

 

[GaWx]

Newest recon data suggests pretty tight LLC near 31.9N, 77.5W. Highest winds nearby at 48 knots? Extrapolated SLP 1006 mb. Is this right?

203200 3158N 07735W 8432 01547 0066 +188 +103 328038 041 041 005 00
203230 3156N 07734W 8426 01552 0063 +191 +097 309039 041 042 005 00
203300 3154N 07733W 8425 01554 0064 +193 +097 294039 040 041 004 00
203330 3153N 07732W 8430 01552 0073 +181 +102 297038 041 035 005 00
203400 3152N 07730W 8418 01564 0076 +174 +106 299038 039 /// /// 03
203430 3153N 07729W 8416 01562 0064 +189 +094 288041 042 022 005 00
203500 3155N 07728W 8435 01537 0066 +176 +104 296048 052 030 014 00
203530 3156N 07727W 8412 01545 0072 +131 //// 320026 051 045 038 04

 

[Downeastnc]

They trying hard to find that center

 

[Brent]

Not much strengthening expected

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 78.0W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Edisto Beach, South
Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina.

 

[GaWx]

W winds to 43 knots? Is that right? Extrap SLP 1010 mb there.

05
204730 3148N 07710W 8417 01578 0095 +162 +139 239037 041 033 008 03
204800 3147N 07711W 8431 01565 0099 +165 +129 260038 041 029 007 00
204830 3146N 07711W 8432 01564 0095 +172 +122 269040 043 029 008 00
204900 3144N 07712W 8417 01581 0099 +168 +114 262032 038 029 008 00
204930 3143N 07713W 8422 01576 0102 +163 +115 273029 031 026 008 00
205000 3142N 07714W 8436 01559 0105 +154 +129 269022 027 022 009 00
205030 3140N 07712W 8420 01579 0100 +166 +117 272025 027 022 003 00
205100 3139N 07711W 8431 01572 0103 +166 +129 266021 026 020 002 00
205130 3138N 07709W 8428 01575 0103 +172 +120 257023 028 020 000 00