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Tropical PTC8

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the non-tropical low pressure system off the South Carolina coast
has a broad low-level circulation center, but could be in the
process of reforming closer to the mid-level circulation currently
seen on radar from Wilmington, NC. However, the system may not have
yet completely shed its frontal characteristics. Since there is deep
convection over and around the center, it is becoming more
likely the cyclone could become either a tropical or subtropical
cyclone within the next day or so. Therefore the disturbance is
being designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight at this time
with an initial intensity of 40 kt.

There has been significant uncertainty in the center positions since
last night, and the best guess at initial motion is northwestward or
320/6 kt. Over the next couple of days, the disturbance is expected
to be steered by the flow on the southern or southwestern side of a
mid-level high pressure system over the northeastern United States.
This motion should bring the center inland over the southeastern
U.S. coast in 24 hours or so. The NHC forecast track is close to
the simple and corrected dynamical consensus model solutions.

the system will be traversing warm waters for the next 24 hours or
so and it may be situated within an area of relatively low shear
near the axis of an upper-level trough. Therefore some
strengthening is possible before landfall, and the official forecast
is similar to the latest decay-SHIPS model guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 32.0N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 16/0600Z 32.4N 78.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 16/1800Z 33.1N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/0600Z 34.1N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 17/1800Z 35.4N 80.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 18/0600Z 36.7N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 18/1800Z 37.5N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
It could be deceptive since it’s based on the IR satellite loop, but it sure looks like this is not drifting NW like a lot of the model guidance had suggested about now. It almost looks like it may be moving NNE, but that could be the IR fooling me and this may be due to shearing. But if so, that should favor a NC rather than the SC that the GFS/Euro have.
 
Per NHC there has been a very slow drift to the NW, but they expect it to speed up to the NW:

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY OFF THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 77.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SSW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North
Carolina

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 32.2 North, longitude 77.9 West. The system is moving
toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion
is expected through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
the system should reach the coast within the warning area on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. This system is likely to become a tropical storm overnight or
tomorrow morning, and some strengthening is possible before the
system makes landfall.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) has become a bit better
organized tonight, with deep convection on the northeast side of the
circulation. Additionally, the last aircraft pass just north of the
estimated center of the system indicated that the temperature
gradient from east-to-west had weakened. However, it is still
unclear whether a well-defined center exists looking at the latest
satellite and radar animations, with the center that the plane found
earlier looking somewhat elongated. For now, the system will remain
a Potential Tropical Cyclone, and the winds are set to 40 kt. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to be in the area
overnight for a better look at the system's structure.

It appears the system has only drifted northwest since this
afternoon. The PTC should move a bit faster to the northwest on
Monday and Tuesday due to flow from a ridge over the northeastern
United States. There is general agreement on this track in the
models, though they differ on the speed. The new forecast is
trended a bit slower than the last one, but not as slow as the
ECMWF model.

The system has a high chance of being a tropical cyclone early
tomorrow, and some strengthening is possible before landfall as it
moves over warm waters with a conducive upper-level trough
interaction. The official forecast is similar to the latest
decay-SHIPS model guidance and the prior forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 32.2N 77.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 16/1200Z 32.8N 78.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 17/0000Z 33.6N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1200Z 34.5N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 18/0000Z 35.5N 80.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 18/1200Z 36.6N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 19/0000Z 36.5N 80.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
 
GaWx said:
It could be deceptive since it’s based on the IR satellite loop, but it sure looks like this is not drifting NW like a lot of the model guidance had suggested about now. It almost looks like it may be moving NNE, but that could be the IR fooling me and this may be due to shearing. But if so, that should favor a NC rather than the SC that the GFS/Euro have.
Click to expand...
I always pay close attention to the outflow to as it will give you a good indication of where the center will heads towards. The outflow is clearly moving NW.
 
2 to 5 is way under doing it. Places along the coast already have 10 and that big nasty looking area of convection with MLC is headed right for mby
 
Radar shows a hybrid more than tropical system....also sure looks like at the very least the mlc is going nnw into the Cape Fear region.
 
Sporadic lightening and thunder, with I'd estimate near 30 mph gusts here. Core of the storm is approaching pretty quick hoping for no Tor.

Wow look at Kure
www.surfchex.com

Kure Beach

Kure Beach live HD web cam and surf report and live weather conditions. Watch our live Kure Beach HD surf cam and weather conditions updated every second.
www.surfchex.com www.surfchex.com
 
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Disco_Lemonade said:
Sporadic lightening and thunder, with I'd estimate near 30 mph gusts here. Core of the storm is approaching pretty quick hoping for no Tor.

Wow look at Kure
www.surfchex.com

Kure Beach

Kure Beach live HD web cam and surf report and live weather conditions. Watch our live Kure Beach HD surf cam and weather conditions updated every second.
www.surfchex.com www.surfchex.com
Click to expand...
Winds really picked up last 20 or 30 minutes here.
 
The Last *BAND*,, If you can call it that.. We are in a "Lull" currently..
I had too take the Step~Daughter too work in Surf City..

Lotsa Thunder & lighting, indictive of a organizing TS/TC?
The Ocean @ Surf City pier looked like a Mud Washing Machine.. waves 10' plus..
(Yeah went by there)..

I wouldn't be surprised that Condo buildings on N. Topsail get condemned after this, even w/the Sandbags in place.

Anyhoo..

Wind(s) are outta the North @22mph, gusting 35 & 40 just Shy of (solid), TS force winds
I've gotten ALOT of Rain since 12AM this morning over a couple inchs in my AO, approaching 3.50 on My rain Guage.. Since yesterday 12pm ..

Looking at the Radar, I can only Guess, what @Shaggy & @lexxnchloe are getting in Wilmington, Solid RED On the Gaydar..

Almost like Floyd when that made landfall..
 

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SENC said:
The Last *BAND*,, If you can call it that.. We are in a "Lull" currently..
I had too take the Step~Daughter too work in Surf City..

Lotsa Thunder & lighting, indictive of a organizing TS/TC?
The Ocean @ Surf City pier looked like a Mud Washing Machine.. waves 10' plus..
(Yeah went by there)..

I wouldn't be surprised that Condo buildings on N. Topsail get condemned after this, even w/the Sandbags in place.

Anyhoo..

Wind(s) are outta the North @22mph, gusting 35 & 40 just Shy of (solid), TS force winds
I've gotten ALOT of Rain since 12AM this morning over a couple inchs approaching in my AO, approaching 3.50 on My rain Guage.. Since yesterday 12pm ..

Looking at the Radar, I can only Guess, what @Shaggy & @lexxnchloe are getting in Wilmington, Solid RED On the Gaydar..

Almost like Floyd when that made landfall..
Click to expand...
Like being in a heavy thunderstorm for 5 hours
 
On Vis Sat loop looks like llc is due south of Wilmington, drifting east and now possibly E/NE most likely getting absorbed by the MLC that's moving inland around Wilmington. Messy system but plenty of rain for y'all down south. I may stay mostly dry through this
 
Kure beach webcam looks amazing with the sun trying to come out

www.surfchex.com

Kure Beach

Kure Beach live HD web cam and surf report and live weather conditions. Watch our live Kure Beach HD surf cam and weather conditions updated every second.
www.surfchex.com www.surfchex.com
 
And we lost power!
Duke Energy: A power outage has been identified in your area and may impact snowc's address **. The current estimated time for restoration is 04:00 PM on Sept 16. When the assigned crew completes assessment, the estimate may be adjusted. We will provide updates as we progress. If your service is on, Text 1. Text STOP to cancel.
 
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