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Wintry Potential Dec 13-14 Ice Threat

Jessy89 said:
Nam obviously has a cold bias. No way it’s that cold with that much ice. That would cause some problems
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Bias is not as bad once the NAM is 24 hours out. I agree with Webber on predicting location+risk over amounts at this range. EURO usually does really well but I’m not sure if it’s done trending it may get a touch more icier.
 
Jessy89 said:
Nam obviously has a cold bias. No way it’s that cold with that much ice. That would cause some problems


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Could be true ... but CMC has already been showing this for probably the most concrete scenario we’ve seen from any model.. euro and Gfs have slowly over the runs shown colder with more moisture coming over that cold air earlier ... DONT count out a sneak ice storm in the makings
 
Gfs has this about right I believe. Brief period of ice for NC quickly changing to rain. This is more of a brief nuisance for whoever sees it rather then a full blown winter storm.


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GFS says nope
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We’ve seen the globales not see these CAD signatures before .. it’s classic global model error .. we must focus on high res short range modeling and now casting when it comes time
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
We’ve seen the globales not see these CAD signatures before .. it’s classic global model error .. we must focus on high res short range modeling and now casting when it comes time
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We're on the fringe of NAM range, as of right now I'd put more weight with globals
 
Sleet City USA said:
We're on the fringe of NAM range, as of right now I'd put more weight with globals
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Which is why GSP was so conservative in their discussion. I think if by this time tomorrow we see the NAM showing something similar to what the CMC is showing, you’ll start to see them get more aggressive in their wording. Of course one of the keys to the icier solutions is having a decent snowpack put down on a Wednesday and Wednesday night in Virginia. If that doesn’t happen I just don’t see the cold air holding in long enough
 
Chazwin said:
Which is why GSP was so conservative in their discussion. I think if by this time tomorrow we see the NAM showing something similar to what the CMC is showing, you’ll start to see them get more aggressive in their wording. Of course one of the keys to the icier solutions is having a decent snowpack put down on a Wednesday and Wednesday night in Virginia. If that doesn’t happen I just don’t see the cold air holding in long enough
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Against my better judgement of posting hour 84 NAM, it’s heading towards the CMC solution.
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
In addition, that meso high denoted with the 1036 H near Roanoke is what will really be the tell tell if this is a nuisance or a moderate event.
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No doubt and globals struggle with meso features such as that. Get the feeling y'all might have some fun with this one

edit: I know you are along the blue ridge escarpment (not sure what exactly gave that away lol) but where is your location along it?
 
metwannabe said:
No doubt and globals struggle with meso features such as that. Get the feeling y'all might have some fun with this one

edit: I know you are along the blue ridge escarpment (not sure what exactly gave that away lol) but where is your location along it?
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Lol! I’m in located in NE section of McDowell county. Above the northern banks of Lake James.
 
RNK is going with a quick warm up on Friday. But they ALWAYS do this no matter the setup!

THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A chance of freezing rain after
midnight. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of precipitation
40 percent.
.FRIDAY...Cloudy with a chance of freezing rain. A chance of rain
in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon. Highs in the
lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
 
I've seen several people talking about the euro caving to this and that. Wasnt the euro the first model to show this as a possible threat on Dec 4th at 240hrs?
Still not sure we see anything frozen in the upstate or not but still is something to watch and track.
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WxBlue said:
Initial "first call" map for the freezing rain event. Too early to determine the amount, but chances are increasing for the Blue Ridge Escarpment region. "Some chance" of freezing rain for rest of the usual CAD region including Greensboro, Charlotte, and Greenville.


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I would extend your purple down the entire escarpment through Henderson County. I’ve seen the setup before and you better believe areas like Saluda and Bat Cave, and even west into Hendersonville will get hit if the areas above do.
 
BlueRidgeFolklore said:
I would extend your purple down the entire escarpment through Henderson County. I’ve seen the setup before and you better believe areas like Saluda and Bat Cave, and even west into Hendersonville will get hit if the areas above do.
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Fair enough.
 
I could see a northern Greenville county seeing a little ice. Up around travelers rest and places. And up into NC but that’s about all I see that’s possible. I could be wrong


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All in! 1/2” precip @ 33, that’s awful close to some issues!C84D8F09-0431-465B-BF29-687CF298EB86.png
 
Sleet City USA said:
Does make you think, what if the temps bust low?
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I’d almost bet $ to doughnuts, the high Thursday will bust high, and just ruin everything. I’ve seen forecasts for anywhere from 44-48 degrees, most likely hit 50-55, just how it happens
 
Don't Wishcast. You all probably will be disappointed. This is the 18z Euro. I think these areas should be watched for some ZR, but in the triad and GSP, I think seeing something is a stretch. I remember the January Ice chance, I waited all night only to find out my low was 37 degrees. I'm not saying that models will trend better, Just don't expect anything beyond the foothills and mountains.

Also, I remember that CMC guidance was too cold for that storm and has me at .75 inches of ice. I wouldn't take much stock in it.
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As we know, in some cases OP long range models don't handle the CAD well. Personally, with CAD events I prefer to wait until the time frame comes within fully of the event on high res short range models to get a better idea. CAD events can be very challenging and tricky to forecast. My concerns is the timing of the moisture, how long will it be before WAA takes over? will WAA take over quicker? Are the models under doing the CAD? I think it's a bad idea to discount the CMC due to it's consistency of this upcoming freezing rain event. It's a possibility that this could turn out to be a quick catastrophic icing event for some if the CMC is to be correct. I would definitely use the CMC alongside short range modeling to verify the CMC. I do think there would be a greater extent of ice down into northeast GA, down to the northeastern suburbs of Atlanta, and east central GA. It's also possible ice could extent further south into central SC.
 
WxWatch said:
As we know, in some cases OP long range models don't handle the CAD well. Personally, with CAD events I prefer to wait until the time frame comes within fully of the event on high res short range models to get a better idea. CAD events can be very challenging and tricky to forecast. My concerns is the timing of the moisture, how long will it be before WAA takes over? will WAA take over quicker? Are the models under doing the CAD? I think it's a bad idea to discount the CMC due to it's consistency of this upcoming freezing rain event. It's a possibility that this could turn out to be a quick catastrophic icing event for some if the CMC is to be correct. I would definitely use the CMC alongside short range modeling to verify the CMC. I do think there would be a greater extent of ice down into northeast GA, down to the northeastern suburbs of Atlanta, and east central GA. It's also possible ice could extent further south into central SC.
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Main issue I see is that the DPs are going to be marginal even up here in this part of the CAD region, and that's a big red flag to expect 33 and rain. We've got to see DPs down in the upper 20s when the precip hits and we wetbulb out to see any decent icing that would last longer than an hour or two. The timing also hurts because the system will be saturating the atmosphere when we normally cool off for the night, allowing temps to remain higher. If you want ice, this thing needs to be bone dry up until we can cool more than what is expected right now to allow cooler temps to lock and drop the wetbulb.
 
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