Severe Possible severe weather February 4th-7th

[Darklordsuperstorm]

SPC already outlining a threat for days 5-7 This would be Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday of next week.

 

[gawxnative]

Yes models showing multiple systems rotating aroung bottom of the slow moving trough. If it was March-April would be big trouble.

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

Spc is continuing to advertise a threat for the middle of next week.
DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6...
The medium-range models move an upper-level trough across the Four
Corners region on Tuesday as southwest mid-level flow remains
established from the southern Plains to the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. A moist airmass should be in place in the lower Mississippi
Valley where scattered thunderstorm development will be possible
Tuesday. A severe threat may develop across parts of the Arklatex
where instability and shear are forecast to be favorable for wind
damage and hail. The chance for thunderstorm development is forecast
to continue from Tuesday night into Wednesday across the Southeast
as the upper-level trough moves into the central states. Strong
deep-layer shear and moderate instability in the central Gulf Coast
region could be sufficient for squall-line development as a cold
front moves from west to east across the region. The front is
forecast to reach the eastern Gulf Coast States on Thursday with a
moist and unstable airmass in place ahead of the front. This
combined with strong deep-layer shear associated with a broad
mid-level jet, should be sufficient for a continued severe threat
during the day on Thursday. Wind damage and hail will be possible
from central and northern Florida northward into the Carolinas.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Not often you see SPCs that high on ensembles

 

[ryan1234]

You can definitely get some nasty storms in February. Remember the Feb 2008 outbreak? It's pretty rare for the SPC to issue day 5 and 6 svr weather outlooks. And it's right over my area. This system could mean business.

 

[Arcc]

Wind profiles and lower forcing is screaming supercells and tornadoes, so the ceiling is much higher and it is much more dangerous than the system a few weeks ago. The factors against this being a big issue are there though. The big positive tilt trough will just pump in moisture which is both good and bad. For one the lack of forcing will reduce junk convection, but on the flip side pump in higher mid level temps possibly creating a cap that will not be broken. Definitely should be watched.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wind profiles and lower forcing is screaming supercells and tornadoes, so the ceiling is much higher and it is much more dangerous than the system a few weeks ago. The factors against this being a big issue are there though. The big positive tilt trough will just pump in moisture which is both good and bad. For one the lack of forcing will reduce junk convection, but on the flip side pump in higher mid level temps possibly creating a cap that will not be broken. Definitely should be watched.

Yeah been seeing EML advection with this one

 

[deltadog03]

Euro soundings look a bit ominous

 

[farleydawg792]

Euro soundings look a bit ominous

Agreed. Something to look out for, especially since the SPC is already showing it.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Euro soundings look a bit ominous

For where specifically?

 

[deltadog03]

I would say central and southern portions of AL and GA

 

[deltadog03]

And into the Carolinas.

 

[tennessee storm]

I know all eyes are on the system this weeks, but growing ensemble support of even a stronger system that bears watching during the pre valentines day period...

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This sounding ain’t no joke if you break the cap, note this is from a old run, much less unidirectional flow vs are last event

 

[BHS1975]

This is for the RDU area.

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[Arcc]

This sounding ain’t no joke if you break the cap, note this is from a old run, much less unidirectional flow vs are last event View attachment 32900

Yeah, the wind fields on the Euro are ominous. That said, in the little I've looked at suggests it may be hard to break that cap. In fact could be one of those events where if we get something big, it happens early before the warm mid level temps shut it off.

 

[Shaggy]

This is for the RDU area.

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Sounds like a late night hit for us here in central/eastern NC. Hope people pay attention as we get closer of it still looks rough.

 

[BHS1975]

Sounds like a late night hit for us here in central/eastern NC. Hope people pay attention as we get closer of it still looks rough.

Probally just a nasty squall line.


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[Ethan80963]

NAM went a bit overboard with these totals. But here's the 24 hour precip totals

 

[ryan1234]

The severe weather threat doesn't look as ominous as it did yesterday. But that is subject to change, I suppose.