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Severe POSS SEVERE WEATHER STARTING 05-17-2019 and BEYOND

not much happening here(was briefly some tornado warnings earlier), but the storms in PA look real

of course after I type that a brief rope tornado is reported 10 miles to my south but literally the rest of this isn't even severe
 
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Southeast of Dallas near Canton hit in 2017 by an EF4

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Looks like southern VA and northern NC could get some storms. Wonder if they can make it this far south. Saw this on Facebook.

See the area encircled in white? There is a 40% chance that a severe t-storm watch will be issued for this area. I'll be here watching these storms all evening. @WRALWeather

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Looks like a chance of storms around here tomorrow.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
439 AM EDT Thu May 30 2019

Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Anson-Richmond-
439 AM EDT Thu May 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong storms are possible Friday afternoon through early evening. Wind gusts over 50 mph and large hail are possible.
 
I don't think I have ever seen this. SPC issued a dry thunderstorm risk for lightning that could spark fires because the ground is so dry.

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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

Valid 301700Z - 311200Z

An isolated dry thunderstorm area has been introduced in portions of
the Carolinas for this outlook update. Models and point forecast
soundings indicate potential for relatively higher-based, isolated
thunderstorm activity atop areas of dry fuels, with possible
lightning strikes on the periphery of heavier thunderstorm cores.
Although moisture content is relatively high for the typical
isolated dry thunderstorm scenario, any heavy rain should be brief
as storms will migrate northeastward around 30-35 knots given
enhanced flow aloft. Wind gusts near storms may also complicate any
ongoing fire suppression efforts.
 
SD said:
If/what cells get going tomorrow have a decent environment for hail and wind. Might have a little bit of loose organization to the storms as well.

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We've had some small storms fire today and they were quite windy for such small storms.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
No wonder, that’s helluva lot of DCAPE, not often you see values that high View attachment 19939
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Yeah my 3yr old was super excited to get his first downburst!! A damage report has popped up a few miles down the road in Farmville,nc. We have no cable or internet and it happened during the storm. Reports of lines down so I'm having to eat up data. Had some sweet structure as it interacted with the seabreeze.
 

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Shaggy said:
Yeah my 3yr old was super excited to get his first downburst!! A damage report has popped up a few miles down the road in Farmville,nc. We have no cable or internet and it happened during the storm. Reports of lines down so I'm having to eat up data. Had some sweet structure as it interacted with the seabreeze.
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Nice picture man !!! Profiles were so marginal but the sea breeze is something else and can really alter things, and oh yeah, tommorow looks similar, just more forcing and more CAPE with higher DPs and colder air aloft, bet there’s going to be noiccceeee structure tommorow, I don’t see why storms wouldn’t acquire weak mid level rotation/mesos, deep layer shear is supportive of it
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Nice picture man !!! Profiles were so marginal but the sea breeze is something else and can really alter things, and oh yeah, tommorow looks similar, just more forcing and more CAPE with higher DPs and colder air aloft, bet there’s going to be noiccceeee structure tommorow, I don’t see why storms wouldn’t acquire weak mid level rotation/mesos, deep layer shear is supportive of it
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It's a certainty tomorrow will be rough. I have tickets to see hootie and the blowfish in Raleigh.
 
SD said:
Oh poop....enhanced risk now...

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Mesoscale Discussion 0909 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Fri May 31 2019

Areas affected...western portions of VA/NC and the VA/NC Piedmont

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 311607Z - 311800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is forecast over the next 1-2 hours (12pm-2pm EDT) near the higher terrain over western NC and western/southwestern VA. Isolated storms may also develop over the Piedmont by 2pm EDT.

DISCUSSION...Late morning water vapor imagery loop shows a mid-level shortwave trough over KY/TN and this feature is forecast to reach the southern Appalachians by mid afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus field over the southern Appalachians immediately east of the eastward-migrating disturbance. Surface observations indicate temperatures have warmed to near 80 degrees F near the mountains and into the middle 80s over the NC Piedmont. Low-level moisture increases from west to east across NC with surface dewpoints near 60 degrees F in the west, low-middle 60s over the Piedmont, and upper 60s to near 70 in the coastal plain.

Reflective of the low-level moisture field, buoyancy is forecast to be highest near and east of I-95 with 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE expected by late afternoon with steep 0-3km lapse rates. Strong heating will contribute to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE farther west near the I-77 corridor by early afternoon. A belt of 30-35kt westerly 500mb flow will act to organize updrafts this afternoon beneath 60-80kt upper-level westerly flow. Despite weak low-level flow, elongated hodographs will favor the potential for splitting supercells and severe multicells capable of large hail and severe gusts (60mph). The propensity for wind damage will likely increase coincident with richer low-level moisture as storms move/grow upscale from west-central into east-central portions of NC later this afternoon into the early evening.

..Smith/Grams.. 05/31/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON 37317860 36927764 36387736 35067798 34757896 35498172 35848182 36238171 37128086 37468004 37327868 37317860


Gonna be an interesting afternoon!

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Interesting hodos today, mostly straight, could see some splitting sups today, and a couple left movers may persist from stronger deep layer shear
 
Enhanced risk and probably a watch going up. It does have that look and feel outside. Guess we'll have to see if we actually get anything severe with a watch this time, or if the streak of having more severe weather around here without a watch continues.

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As violent as those small cells were last night in Pitt County especially the Farmville area today could be really bad which really sucks cuz I really wanted to go see that concert
 
And we have a watch out now.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 300
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
130 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
North Carolina
Southern Virginia
Far southern West Virginia
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until
1100 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Episodic severe storms are expected into this evening with
several cells and multiple clusters spreading east. Damaging winds
are the primary threat, but large hail is possible as well.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles south
southwest of Dublin VA to 55 miles east northeast of New Bern NC.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
 
That cell north of Hickory has potential, and it’s heaed this way.F0800D93-88E8-4EBE-A4F1-794E0B361A71.png
 
Looks like the ol' 7-10 split for central NC this evening.
 
Tornado Warning
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
419 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

NCC097-312030-
/O.CON.KGSP.TO.W.0022.000000T0000Z-190531T2030Z/
Iredell NC-
419 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
IREDELL COUNTY...

At 419 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 5 miles south of Statesville, or over Troutman, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
Statesville around 430 PM EDT.
 
I can actually see the meso and weak circulation with that SW part of the statesville storm all the way back in kannapolis, has a nice anvil and decent inflow, here’s a pic of the weak rotation I saw, should of taken one when I was on the road, not the best pic, lol 36387D0E-3E35-4333-AE81-AAD2F9D51935.jpeg
 
Unlike yesterday, the progress of this slowly northward propagating outflow boundary extending along a line just north of Raeford, Fayetteville, Clinton, & Mt Olive may actually be worth watching later in the evening as a locus for t'storm development &/or intensification in east-central NC especially considering that storms have been firing along it at will around Kinston and Greenville.

Strongest storm on radar definitely appears to be practically over Piedmont-Triad International & headed in the direction of Greensboro.

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