Ohio and Georgia are my only concerns. Landslide regardless. 
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Political Thread
- Thread starter Bama Ravens
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Heelyes
Member
No it was 12 years ago
NoSnowATL
Member
Nasty
Lol, you don't even get what that means. The Cheeto is done.
Downeastnc
Member
Bottom line Trump needs 5 of these states WI/MI/PA/AZ/NC/FL/OH to win if nothing else changes.....most other states are safe states and wont change from 2016. Right now Trump is only up in OH and NC and those are by a pt or so..
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Going to be a long 4.5 more years for you. It amazes how the media unknowingly are paving a path clearer than 2016. Ignorance is bliss.
Yep, all data indicates a landslide is incoming.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
FL is getting even more red. In PA, from 2017 to now Dem advantage went from +11 to +9, a state Trump won in 2016. N.C., FL, and Ohio are locks for Trump. I’m close to putting PA there due to Republican registration surge there and Biden’s statement on fracking. The 5th state is interesting but I’d put my money on Wisconsin.
facts and data trump hopes and dreams.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Cats must have hibernated in nov 2016
I’m not at all convinced yet that DJT will win again in November, but I’ll just leave this here.
English?
NOAA Chief Violated Ethics Code in Furor Over Trump Tweet, Agency Says (Published 2020)
Neil Jacobs violated the agency’s scientific integrity policy with a statement last year backing the president’s inaccurate claim that a hurricane was headed for Alabama, a panel found.
ruined careers follow the cheeto
Trump is only +2 in ARKANSAS! Lol
2020 in a nutshell 
If you believe that poll then you're going to need some extra Duty Pepto-Bismol on Election night.
serious question : do you believe any polls?
Yeah don’t they usually call Arkansas the night before the election? Lol
Nah. I took a polling class in grad school and I learned that this is just all political fodder. When some polls only poll 25% Republicans that's pretty bad.
I believe this one
All of these aren’t wrong. The biggest trends are independent voters leaning heavily to biden this year. That’s comparing the same thing in polls between 2016 and 2020. Trump is toast.
Most of them are wrong. Polling companies do not change the methodology until after Labor Day when they start polling likey voters instead of the registered voters. You being a former Bernie supporter should know how that works.
I don’t think Arkansas goes to biden. It does tell me that trump is really hurting.
NoSnowATL
Member
Yep
Downeastnc
Member
The OAN had to pull a poll they tried to run to show Trump up in FL when it showed that Biden was up...pretty bad when even the OAN cant put Trump up in a poll......Biden has a growing lead there so FL is not getting more red.....PA is a toss up but leans Biden, there are 900k more Dems than Republicans in PA....
Bern never cleared about 20-30% support. All you guys have is the polls are wrong. Look at the trends of trumps approval rating. He’s screwed.
Look at the independent support for Biden vs Hillary. The data is not good for trump no matter how it’s dissected.
Why would any Trump supporter tell a poll that they were voting for Trump at this stage, especially when they're accused of being redneck racists?
The polls are meaningless. They are spun by the pollsters. Look at the unrest. The voters were sick of the liberal left telling them what to like and how to act in 2016. It's 2020 and the voters are sick of the radical religious right coddling a chronic liar and narcissist that is using the position to line his pockets all because they want to make the rest of the world conform to their views. They have sold out.
NoSnowATL
Member
Biden 20...... you know.... that year. Book it!
Ronald Reagan first and second term, Bill Clinton, George W Bush, and Trump were all behind at this stage of the summer before an election according to polls. Heck I saw the other day where Jimmy Carter was up by 13 points on Ronald Reagan.
Show proof a large amount of people being polled are lying about who they are voting for? They are done over the phone. The reason you gave above about why someone would lie makes no sense.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Must have missed in my post that dem registration was +11% and Trump still won, it’s currently +9%.
I don't have to prove anything to you.
independent voters are heavily in favor of biden.
nah you don’t. I was hoping you had some data I could check out to back up the claim.
I don't feel like researching it I'm sure you can Google it so you can sleep well tonight
it isn’t there man. But ok
snowlover91
Member
All this talk about polling and who will win is way premature to me. Who knows what will happen the next few months leading up to the election... there are lots of catalysts. How does the economy recover? Is there a big 2nd surge of coronavirus? Who does Biden pick as VP? What other unforeseen events will happen? My point is even if one trusts polling data (I don’t) there are many things that can shift it one way or another the next few months.
Downeastnc
Member
Yeah because the Dems stayed home because Hillary is the worst candidate in the history of US presidential elections.....Obama got more votes in PA than Donald did in 2008 and 2012, Trump won because of turnout and then only by 44k votes in PA....if you think Biden gets less votes than Hillary in PA your nuts.....the real question is how many votes does Trump lose because he cant afford to give up any....
Just to give you a idea of why that big difference in registered voters I posted matters.....in 2008 Obama got 3.2 million votes, Trump got 2.9 in 2016....
A good read on current PA numbers
Pa. voter trends: Republicans switching parties in reliably red counties and more
An analysis of Pennsylvania voting records reveals five trends in 2020, including 644,835 inactive voters in a state decided by 44,000 votes in 2016.
www.ydr.com
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