The EPS mean was better further west! I see @Myfrotho704_ already posted this.
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Ostrich December
- Thread starter SETNwx
- Start date
SnowNiner
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Agree, I think what we see so far on the models are general cool/seasonable weather for the south east, and a warm up next week. I'm fine with that in December.
However I just really, really don't want the Alaska vortex to set up shop. That thing has to be transient and move west pretty please. If it stays around AK, we may as well find another hobby this winter. -AO/-NAO will be useless IMO and dump cold out west all.....winter....long. Only thing I'm watching really for the next 2 weeks.
NCSNOW
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Not this far east, I despise ULLs haha
That looks like $$$$$ to me! ??????????
I got the 3rd biggest snow of my life with the 3/1/2009 Simpsonville Squasher!?
Not far I guess, would be nice to get those lower heights around SE Canada 
Is 7” on the EPS good?
My friend in Hutchinson KS had a 6-7 inch mean 96 hours out and got 0 from a storm, so not safe yet
We would need the TPV over Canada to be replaced by higher heights to allow high pressure to funnel southward, which would lead to, as you mentioned, a SE Canada vortex, but that seems extremely unlikely to me.
We need something similar to this back, at least In SE Canada
Oh yeah, GFS Is basically dry! ?
NCSNOW
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You get your share of the goods; This was a shortwave dropping down and bombing out. Sorta like what he crusher did in Jan 2000. Seems every 20 year its time for another one. 1980,2000,2020???
Coastal bombs yes but ULLs no...
Yeah, but you're not going to get cold high pressure with that look. The higher heights over central Canada/Great Lakes connect the high pressure from Artic down to the US (which isn't there on this run). The purpose of the SE Canada vortex is to funnel it down and create CAD. It does nothing when there isn't anything to funnel.
Oh i know that, but we can at least take our chances with a marginal/wet bulb/rate depending event with this look, since the northern stream disconnects from it slower, while 850s were above freezing, wet bulb/rates would have completely crashed the column with this look if it digged properly, we’re just not getting no CAD with this look, gonna have to wait until we get a true -EPO (that’s favored with miller B/CAD setups) with high pressure funneling down from Canada consistently behind big 50/50 lows, right now we’re gonna have to work from behind (good moisture/questionable cold) and that almost never works out
I see what you're saying! I definitely like the look of no ridge over the Atlantic. However, we continue trying to thread the needle. ?
The model agreement at 144 hours is just about 0. This is fun
Yeah and that never unfortunately works out, when was the last time we successfully threaded the needle without CAD East of the mountains ? And I’m talking a legit system