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Ostrich December

wxdaniel said:
That blocking is something else. Can we hold the next two months???
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I just don’t know why we can’t turn the pacific to be good for at least a few days for a right setup, all I want is a wave entering from the west US, and + heights building behind it, so it digs, and we have the -NAO, but instead the pacific is a heaping pile of hot ---- shat crap
 
Rain Cold said:
Man the NAO on the GFS just wants to be negative all the way through. But the PNA is just a mess. Troughs just keep dropping into the SW, like usual. The pattern could be epic if we could get just a little help from the Pacific. As is, it looks like roughly normal to below temps with normal to above precipitation, most likely rain. Geez.
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Ill go to the grave saying its always all about the pacific for the SE. The past decade spent rooting for a -NAO that has finally showed up, Proves its worthless if you dont have the pacific lined up right 1st and foremost. You nail the pacific, espeacilly whats taking place in the ne pacific, youll nail the winter seasonal wx pattern down for the SE.
 
NCSNOW said:
Ill go to the grave saying its always all about the pacific for the SE. The past decade spent rooting for a -NAO that has finally showed up, Proves its worthless if you dont have the pacific lined up right 1st and foremost. You nail the pacific, espeacilly whats taking place in the ne pacific, youll nail the winter seasonal wx pattern down for the SE.
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Depends in what you want. If you want average to below average temps and no SER the NAO is the key. But if you want snow you need the Pac. Me personally I just want snow. What's worse than a warm snowless winter? A cold snowless winter. Give me 70s over this crapfest we're having so far
 
wxdaniel said:
How?


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I explained how in the January 2021 thread (which is locked for now):

"Although the caveat will be that the Aleutian low will be slightly poleward thanks to the La Nina. This will create a pattern that favors weakening &/or total destruction of the polar vortex by early-mid January as the climatological, standing planetary waves will be enhanced. Even if we don't see a sudden stratospheric warming event & subsequent downward propagation of the circulation anomalies into the troposphere, this wave forcing will keep the polar vortex much weaker than last winter, helping us to avoid an all-out super +NAM/+AO blitz & giving us ample opportunities to get a -AO from transient waves in the troposphere."


https://southernwx.com/community/threads/january-2021-joyless-january.854/
 
Webberweather53 said:
I explained how in the January 2021 thread (which is locked for now):

"Although the caveat will be that the Aleutian low will be slightly poleward thanks to the La Nina. This will create a pattern that favors weakening &/or total destruction of the polar vortex by early-mid January as the climatological, standing planetary waves will be enhanced. Even if we don't see a sudden stratospheric warming event & subsequent downward propagation of the circulation anomalies into the troposphere, this wave forcing will keep the polar vortex much weaker than last winter, helping us to avoid an all-out super +NAM/+AO blitz & giving us ample opportunities to get a -AO from transient waves in the troposphere."


https://southernwx.com/community/threads/january-2021-joyless-january.854/
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Thanks for the explanation. Onto the matter of threads. Shouldn’t we have it unlocked? I mean it is December 21. We are talking about New Years now and early January on the December thread. Don’t mean to be ruffling any feathers. Just would like to comment about January.


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Webberweather53 said:
I explained how in the January 2021 thread (which is locked for now):

"Although the caveat will be that the Aleutian low will be slightly poleward thanks to the La Nina. This will create a pattern that favors weakening &/or total destruction of the polar vortex by early-mid January as the climatological, standing planetary waves will be enhanced. Even if we don't see a sudden stratospheric warming event & subsequent downward propagation of the circulation anomalies into the troposphere, this wave forcing will keep the polar vortex much weaker than last winter, helping us to avoid an all-out super +NAM/+AO blitz & giving us ample opportunities to get a -AO from transient waves in the troposphere."


https://southernwx.com/community/threads/january-2021-joyless-january.854/
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Thread is fixed and opened for business!.!.!
 
NCSNOW said:
Ill go to the grave saying its always all about the pacific for the SE. The past decade spent rooting for a -NAO that has finally showed up, Proves its worthless if you dont have the pacific lined up right 1st and foremost. You nail the pacific, espeacilly whats taking place in the ne pacific, youll nail the winter seasonal wx pattern down for the SE.
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We’ve gotten winter storms with no -NAO in sight but a good pacific to deliver. This right here shows you why you need the pacific to be good first.
 
Onset snow.
648c4eb7c1bceae6072f7944cdbf09c0.jpg


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If the gfs still shows the 27/28th storm by Tuesday. Then we may need to consider a thread for it.


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