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Ostrich December

Clem282340 said:
When you say Carolina are you just talking about nc only or you talking nc and sc
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I just mean east of the mountains really, and that in comparison to the Christmas Eve anafrontal setup this is a far better way to try to score. Way too far out there to talk details about anything, but it is I suppose possible that SC could get into the play with the sort of Christmas day cold push models are advertising, if timing improves and the Christmas trough does not leave so quickly. Though obviously NC is the favored location for a winter storm.

It's also worth noting that only a GFS-type solution would make this storm a possibility, in terms of the large-scale pattern aloft. The GFS is actually the most amplified of all models for Christmas. Here's a comparison of the latest operational model runs on 12z the 25th- check out the strength and position of height anomalies over the eastern US and also downstream over Newfoundland/the North Atlantic:
cm_day.gif
There's a pretty clear spread here from the slowest and weakest ECMWF to the fastest and strongest GFS. The "fastest" part definitely raises some alarms, since the GFS has a known progressive bias. But it seems counter-intuitive to me that faster would equate to a more amplified pattern, so I don't know that this is such a cut-and-dry situation.

Regardless, these details will determine whether we establish a strong -NAO down the road. GFS manages to retrograde this ridge like feature westward over Greenland, while the other models keep a strong height anomaly but in a less desirable location. The differences over the central-Eastern US and Canada as a result are obvious. Note that the GFS has the remnants of our big trough trapped near Hudson Bay, but I can't pick out where those remnants went on the other two models.
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The best thing to track for now would be the ensembles for the Christmas time-period. The 12z GEFS trended towards a more amplified pattern for that storm, in line with the operational model. I'm curious to see how the ECMWF and EPS in particular look today.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I find it hard to believe our trough is pulling out that fast. I don’t really get it tbh besides it getting caught up with that low in the N Atlantic and pulling poleward.View attachment 58760
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I know I said this already but that big wave in the Pacific Northwest is a killer here. Ugly. Could have been a nice overrunning setup.
 
Montanasnow30 said:
I don’t care what y’all say but the gefs been consistently showing hits for this time period y’all make need to start thinking this system will probably much catch us off guard
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Please just remember that this is an Anafront setup that rarely works. I would ignore the consistency of the GEFS, that means nothing. I can count several times when the GFS/GEFS showed consistency with systems but never verified. The same can be said about the Euro but to less of an extent. If we get 72 hours out, and models are still showing something, I'll give in. But hey, I hope I'm wrong, White Christmas FTW!
 
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metwannabe said:
So what if some are "grasping at straws", so what if the GFS is on an island and climo is against it, it's a model showing a potential for some. That's fun, that's why people discuss weather on a weather forum, it's their prerogative if they "buy into it" and get excited. They're not broadcasting official forecast and if it leads to disappointment oh well they had fun tracking and dreaming. I feel like your the guy that will tell his 3 yo there's no Santa Claus. Have some fun, don't be a killjoy
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Never did I say that I had an issue with people discussing weather on a weather forum. Nor did I say it wasn't okay for people to get excited. We all do the same thing, every winter. I buy into certain modeling, especially if it shows something for my backyard. All I was saying we have such a long ways to go before we can begin to discuss precip type, amounts, etc. I do have fun on this board, that's why I am here right now. We all have been burned so many times, so I was only trying to get people to realize that we have a week to go. And I did say anything can change between now and then. No need to call me a killjoy. I've been on this board for over a year and enjoy voicing my opinions as well as reading other's perspectives. 2020 has been rough on all of us.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Please just remember that this is an Anafront setup that rarely works. I would ignore the consistency of the GEFS, that means nothing. I can count several times when the GFS/GEFS showed consistency with systems but never verified. The same can be said about the Euro but to less of an extent. If we get 72 hours out, and models are still showing something, I'll give in. But hey, I hope I'm wrong, White Christmas FTW!
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Wasn’t there an anafront event a few years ago that was forecast to put a lot of snow down west of the apps but it only verified as a mostly cold rain event? I think Atlanta was one of the areas set to get a few in of snow but only got a cold rain.
 
where do you find verification scores for gfs and euro? curious to see how models have been performing recently. definitely could be me but it feels like euro has sucked hard this year but no model has done well either. this system for example euro doesn’t seem consistent whereareas GFS won’t budge (doesn’t mean it’s right, just intriguing)
 
mydoortotheworld said:
where do you find verification scores for gfs and euro? curious to see how models have been performing recently. definitely could be me but it feels like euro has sucked hard this year but no model has done well either. this system for example euro doesn’t seem consistent whereareas GFS won’t budge (doesn’t mean it’s right, just intriguing)
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metwannabe said:
So what if some are "grasping at straws", so what if the GFS is on an island and climo is against it, it's a model showing a potential for some. That's fun, that's why people discuss weather on a weather forum, it's their prerogative if they "buy into it" and get excited. They're not broadcasting official forecast and if it leads to disappointment oh well they had fun tracking and dreaming. I feel like your the guy that will tell his 3 yo there's no Santa Claus. Have some fun, don't be a killjoy
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What do you mean there’s no Santa Clause? Looks like things are getting better looking into January.
 
Yeah this look
02f7d6194883117b1eb82fbcb4a4990f.jpg



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Ollie Williams said:
Please just remember that this is an Anafront setup that rarely works. I would ignore the consistency of the GEFS, that means nothing. I can count several times when the GFS/GEFS showed consistency with systems but never verified. The same can be said about the Euro but to less of an extent. If we get 72 hours out, and models are still showing something, I'll give in. But hey, I hope I'm wrong, White Christmas FTW!
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We can (and I have) cite a myriad of cases where one model is consistent and gets it right while the the others are way off until inside 48 hours. We have crowned Euro king in these parts (I’m not sure if that’s data or perception driven) so I guess we shall see.


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ryan1234 said:
Never did I say that I had an issue with people discussing weather on a weather forum. Nor did I say it wasn't okay for people to get excited. We all do the same thing, every winter. I buy into certain modeling, especially if it shows something for my backyard. All I was saying we have such a long ways to go before we can begin to discuss precip type, amounts, etc. I do have fun on this board, that's why I am here right now. We all have been burned so many times, so I was only trying to get people to realize that we have a week to go. And I did say anything can change between now and then. No need to call me a killjoy. I've been on this board for over a year and enjoy voicing my opinions as well as reading other's perspectives. 2020 has been rough on all of us.
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I don’t think you’re being a killjoy. But...I think the overwhelming majority of folks on this board know we’re about a week out. I am sure the overwhelming majority of them also have a voice of reason up in their heads, too. We will all be happy if we get a white Christmas.


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