I would say this look would produce in January-February, let’s just be patient. But it would probably be rain then, too. I don’t imagine that powerful clipper over N MN is doing us any good, either.
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Ostrich December
- Thread starter SETNwx
- Start date
AJ1013
Member
Here's the latest forecast for Miami. The supposed christmas cold snap is far enough out that for now I guess I'll stay optimistic. Until then it looks alright, a bit below average.
Are you suggesting we are going to 28-3 this pattern? ?
That big red blob out in the western Atlantic is a problem. It keeps reforming over the same area. And that's not a good spot. I'm hopeful that the Pacific will make progress into January. But that blog gotta go.
You can’t look at every model run as exactly what’s going to happen at that point in time... you have to understand the pieces involved and how those pieces can change (and usually will change) from now until that time frame.. the big thing we want to see right now is cold air available .. that’s obvious that we will see a large chunk of it sometime around Christmas .. now we watch pieces of energy and see how they track and turned over the next 5 days ... long time to go with this oneA complete whiff here. Winds out of the NNE right after the front passes is a recipe for windy mild overcast
AJ1013
Member
I know I know lol. Not encouraging to see it trend this way though. I've been burned way too many times by the dreaded NE winds.
ATLwxfan
Member
One run does not a trend make. This is the cha cha cha of the models as Henry Margusity likes to say.
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AJ1013
Member
GEFS and EPS have gone the wrong direction the past two days. We will see. I'm hoping for the best.
Wrt what I said ^ soundings do support snow making it to the ground due to the small melting layer, but those snow growth regions are extremely poor, I’m almost pretty sure your more likely to get graupel, or small snowflakes just because the shallow moist layer is largely below freezing
Freezing fog tomorrow morning ? Might get more accretion of ice from fog than I did this entire storm, lol 
Mega frost alert ?
olhausen
Member
But it sure feels cold due to the stretch of recently above normal Decembers.
Parker
Member
OMG at that one member from the 12z eps ?
I wouldn’t sleep on that first little piece of energy that gets sheared on the Euro/the control,
If we can get favorable trends with it, it’s game on, the cold is there, we just need to find a way to amp it up or get the northern stream trough to relax a bit
If we can get favorable trends with it, it’s game on, the cold is there, we just need to find a way to amp it up or get the northern stream trough to relax a bit
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
A suppressed look over 200 out isn't bad. Workable
olhausen
Member
Yeah and there’s actually legit cold to work with it with this look, for now, but I’d rather see a flat, suppressed look at this range
