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Ostrich December

Fairly big event NC-VA border area. Mixing of sleet/snow could lessen ZR a little tho. (Mount Airy). I would think Mooresville NC is cutoff to any sig. wintery precip due to marginal temps. Mainly north of i40 event for now but trending colder let’s see if we can include more of the areas around Mooresville for more than just a glaze. I don’t do ice maps honestly I have zero faith in any model they all kinda suck when temps are near 32.
 
Always a good sign when RAH is biting on the possibility:

Tue night through Wed night: Wet weather is looking like a good bet
mid week, and our next system appears increasingly likely to bring a
risk of wintry weather to central NC, although at this range (day
5), the details remain murky and the uncertainty high. A mid level
trough moving onto the West Coast over the weekend will deepen while
diving into the Southern Plains early Tue, before tracking NE into
the Northeast states through Wed night. The GFS continues to be
quite sheared with this wave as it heads into the E CONUS, but the
latest Canadian and ECMWF are slower, stronger, and generate greater
forcing for ascent across our region, in tandem with increasing
upper divergence and lower level (850 mb) overrunning flow. At the
surface, strong Canadian high pressure (around 1035 mb central
pressure over SW Que Tue evening) nosing southward through central
NC will set us up for a Miller B cyclogenesis pattern, with
strengthening inverted troughing along and W of the S Appalachians
and coastal cyclogenesis just off the Carolina coast, trending
toward a weakening of the inverted trough as the coastal low
intensifies Wed and tracks NNE along the Mid Atlantic coast. It`s
still not entirely clear how much of the polar air and lower
dewpoints we`ll be able to tap into as the precip arrives. But based
on good model agreement regarding the density and origin of the
incoming parent high pressure and the cyclogenesis pattern, as well
as on the increasingly moist mid levels (suggesting a better chance
that there will be ice in the clouds), the risk of wintry weather is
growing, especially across the climatologically-favored N and W
Piedmont. Will keep the forecast simple for now, showing a rain/snow
mix across much of the Piedmont Tue night into Wed morning. But the
climatology of this pattern would suggest we`ll start out with a
light rain and light sleet mix at the onset Tue night, trending to a
freezing rain/sleet mix in the Piedmont before switching to mostly
freezing rain in the NW Piedmont by Wed morning and eventually
becoming mostly or all rain as the growing warm nose aloft
overwhelms the thermal structure. Again, though, this is still
several days away, and a lot can change, especially with a system
that is still out over the Pacific and likely not being well-
sampled. Stay tuned. Expect lows in the 30s Tue night, highs from
around 40 NW to mid-upper 50s SE Wed, and lows in the upper 20s to
lower 30s Wed night.
 
Gfs is crap after watching it past few days on this system. Euro leading the way as always consistently stronger cad. CMC only used to recognize threat in long range can now be ignored as its ice is bogus every year. NAM will be gold come Sunday night.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Gfs is crap after watching it past few days on this system. Euro leading the way as always consistently stronger cad. CMC only used to recognize threat in long range can now be ignored as its ice is bogus every year. NAM will be gold come Sunday night.
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I like watching dew points (DP) at this range of model watching. Right now the GFS is not there if we're looking for a strong CAD. Some of our best CAD/Miller B storms have had DPs in in the teens in S VA / N NC right before the precip arrives. Current the GFS has the single digit/teens still up in Pennsylvanian at hour 84 whereas the NAM has the teens spilling into N VA at the same time. Even with the NAM we would need to see this continue to push south. Now don't get me wrong, the warmer DPs on the GFS could still work out for far western areas, but if southern/eastern Piedmont and maybe northern coastal Plain want to get into the "action" we need the DPs colder and pushed farther to the south. **and of course the right high pressure/low configuration....
 
I think we can say with relative certainty that the threat for SNOW in the NC piedmont is very low with regards to the Wednesday system. But there are some favorable trends towards freezing rain for the NW piedmont/foothills--if that's your thing.
 
Poimen said:
I think we can say with relative certainty that the threat for SNOW in the NC piedmont is very low with regards to the Wednesday system. But there are some favorable trends towards freezing rain for the NW piedmont/foothills--if that's your thing.
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Was gonna say the opposite, trends are for less ZR due to more mixing with sleet etc will eat away at some for foothills I see. Trending colder. Snow is still mostly Boone NC and north. Close.
 
Poimen said:
I think we can say with relative certainty that the threat for SNOW in the NC piedmont is very low with regards to the Wednesday system. But there are some favorable trends towards freezing rain for the NW piedmont/foothills--if that's your thing.
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If things aligned very positively, I would say a big sleet storm could be possible for some folks. Again, we'll need the stronger CAD to be realized. We've seen a few of these the past years where models spit out horrible freezing rain totals, but we end up with hours of sleet. That's what I hoping on at this juncture.
 
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