Which must imply good snow around that boundary in NC
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Ostrich December
- Thread starter SETNwx
- Start date
if only the CMC didn't have a notorious cold bias.. even gives tennessee some hope for a little snow/ice.
??
SimeonNC
Member
Even the warmer euro is super close call with a big icing event, I’m honestly at this point eager to see what the NAMs shows since it’s better with thermals 
Low track is so nice, just needs more Arctic air. sad.
Euro looks like a slightly stronger and western version of the GFS. WV, NW VA and PA get smoked, low just parks off of Jersey before exiting stage right. Verbatim it’s close for the triad, most everyone else is out of luck.
SimeonNC
Member
The warmest temps get on the Euro for the event is ~40 from Union county to ~33/34 Greensboro, Winston Salem, Hickory, and so on.
The western NC Piedmont may have a decent shot at some onset ice in this setup. If you live east of I-85 in the Carolinas, this is most likely a non-event.
I wonder what happens if we see another tick towards stronger CAD
That's what I am interested to see, if that occurs, the chance of onset ice farther east along the I-85 corridor increases. Not quite the same situation, but I remember a March 2014 system caught the Alamance/Orange/Durham counties off guard with significant icing
SimeonNC
Member
The EPS is gonna have some interesting members.
Ugly Map but here’s what I’m thinking right now per models (this will change !) number 3 is the area that stands the best shot at seeing snow/sleet/ZR
Number 2 is for areas that have a better shot at ZR/IP and staying with frozen precip longer
Number 1 is for areas that for right now, could see some brief onset sleet followed by some freezing rain to rain
It’s very early but these are just some early thoughts, this thing is still 4-5 days away, so there will likely be some hefty shifts, this could get warmer and go to mainly VA, or this could get colder and become more widespread, just depends
Number 2 is for areas that have a better shot at ZR/IP and staying with frozen precip longer
Number 1 is for areas that for right now, could see some brief onset sleet followed by some freezing rain to rain
It’s very early but these are just some early thoughts, this thing is still 4-5 days away, so there will likely be some hefty shifts, this could get warmer and go to mainly VA, or this could get colder and become more widespread, just depends
SimeonNC
Member
Stealing this from the MA forum but someone did point out that the Euro tends to be over amped sometimes.
Brent
Member
Always so far out
SimeonNC
Member
Also question, would the snow north of us from the first storm be enough to influence the CAD? That could play a huge role
After taking off for 12 days over Thanksgiving no way I can make a quick trip north mid-week, timing sucks. Certainly upside potential as all key ingredients for a mid latitude cyclone with large comma head are shaping up for interior sections up there.