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Ostrich December

I don’t want folks to think I’m arguing with them or anything but I’ve lived in prime CAD my whole life and have seen this script a thousand times. Globals too warm at the surface, globals trying to drive LP into the CAD, globals eroding CAD too quickly. Happens everytime. Until it finally decides to show me different, I can’t think this time will be any different.
 
Lets see what CrazyManCanadian has to say. Wouldn't surprise me to see a doozy run here or tomorrow extending into ne ga.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I could see that being more sleet, especially on the onset View attachment 57142
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I could be mistaken and making things up, but it seems like over the last decade, we’ve gotten more sleet as opposed to freezing rain than expected in a lot of these situations. In my time in the Triad (up until 2016), we really hadn’t had any bad ice storms since December 2002 with the exception of March 2014, and even March 2014 had a significant amount of mixing with sleet. Over the same timespan, we had like 10 pingermaggedons (slight exaggeration, but not too much haha).
 
iGRXY said:
That 2nd wave is our storm and is very much in play her. We have a wave showing up and CAD showing up. That’s all you can ask.
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EmersonGA said:
I wasn’t paying attention but when I just let the dog out I noticed my deck was white. I guess I can put a big T down for 11/30.
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iGRXY said:
I don’t want folks to think I’m arguing with them or anything but I’ve lived in prime CAD my whole life and have seen this script a thousand times. Globals too warm at the surface, globals trying to drive LP into the CAD, globals eroding CAD too quickly. Happens everytime. Until it finally decides to show me different, I can’t think this time will be any different.
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My biggest concern is the location of the High at the onset. Would like to see it 200 miles SE
 
GEFS ought to be interesting

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superjames1992 said:
I could be mistaken and making things up, but it seems like over the last decade, we’ve gotten more sleet as opposed to freezing rain than expected in a lot of these situations. In my time in the Triad (up until 2016), we really hadn’t had any bad ice storms since December 2002 with the exception of March 2014, and even March 2014 had a significant amount of mixing with sleet. Over the same timespan, we had like 10 pingermaggedons (slight exaggeration, but not too much haha).
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You’re right, ZR is almost always over modeled with these Ptype changeover gradients. I also find it very suspect that models have a pretty sharp cutoff between ZR and snow, which almost never verifies that way.
 
42edb711368fb0f48047b1f046565e0a.jpg



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