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Ostrich December

Myfrotho704_ said:
UK is really close to some big ice View attachment 57000View attachment 57001
its trending to more and more confluence, (worth noting it struggles with shallow cold air and that’s listed as one of its issues) View attachment 57003
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Can we just stop discussing anything the Crazy Uncle Canadian says? Asking for a friend. :p

One of the things we see with this storm late next week (whether or not it actually becomes anything) is the favorable trends we see. Rather than a NW trend, we get everything pushing south with more confluence. I think that has a lot to do with the blocking/-NAO. Interesting topic for debate on which teleconnection we need more, but there's no question that it's very helpful to us down here. I've forgotten what it's like.
 
One big note is we are already showing ICE on most of the models and are just a few degrees off at face value on the ones that don't physically show ICE. These things always trend Colder as you can clearly see the cold press getting stronger and further south. One other thing to note is this doesn't appear to be a 2-3" rainfall maker but instead something on the verge of 1/2 - 1". That absolutely helps with ICE build up with the lighter precip. Especially sense if you converted those tempes to what they would likely be as of right now (Upstate - 30-32 degrees, Piedmont NC - 28-31 degrees) that is going to really help with more ICE build up.
 
SnowNiner said:
Can we just stop discussing anything the Crazy Uncle Canadian says? Asking for a friend. :p

One of the things we see with this storm late next week (whether or not it actually becomes anything) is the favorable trends we see. Rather than a NW trend, we get everything pushing south with more confluence. I think that has a lot to do with the blocking/-NAO. Interesting topic for debate on which teleconnection we need more, but there's no question that it's very helpful to us down here. I've forgotten what it's like.
Click to expand...
Yeah we use to get the -EPO but no -NAO, so we had to time a 50/50 low at a perfect time with a ss wave, with blocking the high moves a bit slower and confluence is better as you said
 
Ollie Williams said:
Probably nothing special, but some onset Ice.
View attachment 57013
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It's pulling the costal trough and secondary too far west thus scouring out the residual CAD. You can see from this map the sfc low track should be from E of SAV to just inland of HSE but its got it near 95 on the next panel. Euro loves to charge the coastal front inland in all seasons
 
Last edited:
SD said:
It's pulling the costal trough and secondary too far west thus scouring out the residual CAD. You can see from this map the sfc low track should be fun W of SAV to just inland of HSE but its got it near 95 on the next panel. Euro loves to charge the coastal front inland in all seasons
Click to expand...

How often does this verify?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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