Ostrich December

[Myfrotho704_]

Meh I don't think so

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

I’m not talking about our area, talking about other parts of the SE.

 

[SD]

Is this good? Asking for a friend.

View attachment 56907

Insert sarcastic comment if it was the 384 gfs showing a great pattern

 

[GaWx]

Would you rather have a -EPO with a +NAO/+AO with 50/50 lows that escape out due to no blocking orrrr a +EPO/-NAO/-AO thats often warmer

I’d rather have a +PNA first and foremost. The correlation to cold and also to snow is higher for that for ATL and many other areas of the SE US vs any other one index.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

I’m not talking about our area, talking about other parts of the SE.

You right. Great run for tennessee and arkansas

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

 

[GaWx]

View attachment 56868

Reduced MJO activity is actually mostly a favorable thing vs high amp MJO for much of the SE US for cold, including ATL for sure. Also, just about every major ZR at ATL back to 2/1979 was when the MJO was weak (actually inside the circle just about every time). However, going against the chance for a major ZR there is that ENSO is not weak.

 

[GaWx]

View attachment 56843
This is only the GFS, not sure what the Euro has. But until we get the stubborn MJO to not want to hang on the right of the circle in winter we'll struggle to get cold. It may want to head to ph 7 but who knows? I also see just as many wanting to loop right back to crap in 4 and 5. The NAO is saving our ass from torching right now but can't supply the cold we need. The Pac has to be somewhat favorable..

Well more than the longterm average of number of days of MJO phases 4 and 5 are favored this winter due to La Niña as well as a very warm Maritime Continent (Indonesia and vicinity), which is where 4/5 is actually located. That likely explains why the MJO is hanging out there so long this month. This includes 4/5 inside the circle.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Is this good? Asking for a friend.

View attachment 56907

“The fuller the tub, the bigger the slosh.”

-JB

Cold bottled at the pole. We battled that all of last winter. Looks like we’ll be begging for a sudden stratospheric warming event to dislodge it sometime in February if we’re lucky. At least we have something to track.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Like the trend with that trough in Canada this run

 

[SD]

Congrats @BufordWX #trolling

 

[Myfrotho704_]

My problem with the icon is why it’s amping up The SW and slowing it down so much in the central US, that just gives time for our high pressure to leave

 

[AJ1013]

71/47 here today with mostly sunny skies. Can't complain!

Getting some fall colors at last lol

 

[BufordWX]

Congrats @BufordWX #trollingView attachment 56914

I’ve seen a local guy saying he wouldn’t be surprised with 4-8 inches around OKC on Sunday. Seems like the totals are going up with every run. Hoping they get something when I return in January.

 

[accu35]

0z Icon looks better for TN valley with snow

 

[Myfrotho704_]

ICON has ice for CAD regions

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

ICON has ice for CAD regions View attachment 56918View attachment 56919View attachment 56920

Signature CAD look there. You’ve been honking the horn on this being ice. Think you’re going to be right.

 

[accu35]

First strip alert!!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Signature CAD look there. You’ve been honking the horn on this being ice. Think you’re going to be right.

There’s probably some sleet in there as well, 925s are below freezing

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wave becoming slightly more weaker/more ridging nosing into the GL really creates icy issues, just one possible solution however,

 

[Avalanche]

Ill gladly take any form of frozen precip. If its sleet, Ill enjoy 4 wheeling. If its icy glaze, then Ill watch the beauty on the trees while I drink my hot cup of coffee.