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Pattern Oppressive Ornery Obstinate Opposite October

I'm all in on a below normal November. Unfortunately as we get towards Christmas I think we transition into a western trough / ridge east pattern that rolls right into January. I think January is a wash this year that ends up a good bit above normal.

So IMO we need to score before Christmas or we might have to wait till February
 
Storm5 said:
I'm all in on a below normal November. Unfortunately as we get towards Christmas I think we transition into a western trough / ridge east pattern that rolls right into January. I think January is a wash this year that ends up a good bit above normal.

So IMO we need to score before Christmas or we might have to wait till February
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A front loaded winter! I like it! A 2002 early Dec redux, will be just fine! :)
 
The GFS kept it up overnight and said snow here at 0Z. Probably up to its old games again, but the euro ends on the same look at H5 with a -NAO. Also, this tropical system may or may not come into play if it forms. But it's just the GFS with it right?
 
Really, none of us knows about this winter how exactly it will pan out. Is it ok to think maybe just maybe, if we start getting an early cold it may continue pretty well rest of winter? Cold or no cold, will get our Snow chances throuhout winter.
 
Storm5 said:
I dont remember 2002 but I'll take your word for it
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Here you go ... :cool:

cd70.184.144.94.289.8.36.22.prcp.png
 
Storm5 said:
Well hello sexy!!! Thanks Phil for the daily encouragement!
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Is Brick back!? :)
That was the year I believe of the devastating ice storm for the western Carolinas! Most in NC had a 1-2" thump of snow, followed by ZR/ sleet, and lots of it! It was right after thanksgiving, temps low to mid --20s all day! I had about 1" QPF, all ZR and little sleet! It was like 62 the day before! Not another wintry event that winter, but that was a doozy!
 
ForsythSnow said:
El Ninos have dissapointed the last few years here, so I am for one glad for a change. Maybe we will have a cold Christmas this year.
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Exactly! We need this Niña to act like a midoki, weak El Niño, we will be money! Expect the unexpected this winter! Everybody has basically went torch on their forecast, I expect atleast two 4"+ snows for mby!! Go big or go home!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Exactly! We need this Niña to act like a midoki, weak El Niño, we will be money! Expect the unexpected this winter! Everybody has basically went torch on their forecast, I expect atleast two 4"+ snows for mby!! Go big or go home!
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SMH!


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JB just posted about the MJO heading to phase 8, and look out for a tropics threat from the gulf area ! So that cold snap/ hurricane look, may be legit! A snowicane!? :)
 
I mentioned this last week here wrt recurvature of Lan but worth re-iterating... GFS forecast by ~ 10/22 shows the initiation of a massive RW packet as Lan recurves which eventually helps trigger a big trough over the eastern US (~ 300-330E) by 10/26-27. The timing amplitude, and shape of this trough will be highly dependent on Lan's evolution the next several days
nh_hovmoller.png
 
olhausen said:
I wouldn’t get your hopes up for that unless you plan on moving to upstate New York for the winter:)
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Or upstate Person county! :)
 
Webberweather53 said:
I mentioned this last week here wrt recurvature of Lan but worth re-iterating... GFS forecast by ~ 10/22 shows the initiation of a massive RW packet as Lan recurves which eventually helps trigger a big trough over the eastern US (~ 300-330E) by 10/26-27. The timing amplitude, and shape of this trough will be highly dependent on Lan's evolution the next several days
View attachment 1405
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Oddly enough the Euro agrees with same idea and timing
 
CPC is now also buying in to some good chances of late month BN ... :cool:

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We'll see where it takes us, and if it a quick shot or if it portends something down the road ... i.e., is it a hint for mid-winter? Boon or bust? Lots of time yet for a whole season to play out, but nice to see for now, anyway ... :rolleyes:
 
Looks like Halloween may be a fun time-period for some interesting weather of sorts. Maybe not Wintry precip for many of us, but chilly and more Winter like is a good possibility. It's too far out, of course.
 
Hey, considering the time of year, I'll take around average, because around average no longer means 85+, but high 70s, low 80s max. Today it was in the low 70s.
 
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