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Pattern Octorchber

NCSNOW said:
I'm on mission / still anticipating a Halloween / late Oct Hit job/ Big ticket east coast storm ( not Cane/ but extratropical/ Noreaster type with some tropical influence ). Don't see one yet. We shall see. Did see the ole CFS throw its first digital flakes of the season here in NW NC late 1st week NOV.
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RBR71 said:
Euro and ICON try to get a coastal going this weekend. Actually close to a big deal eastern sections
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NCSNOW started hinting at this idea in Sept for this autumn. There’s a strong correlation between very strong El Niños and having one significant to historic U.S. E coast storm in Oct. What I didn’t realize til today is that ALL 9 of the other very strong El Niño Octobers had one:

1877: Hatteras had 1002 mb on 10/27 along with significant rainfall and strong NE winds caused by gradient between a sub 1000 mb low offshore and a 1022 mb high over Quebec. Norfolk got 2.71” of rain. The low was TS #7 then to the S moving OTS:



1888: TS#7 went up the coast 10/11-12



1957: a strong nor’easter (995 mb) went up the coast 10/5-6 giving Hatteras 4.62” of rain:



1965: TS # 9 formed 10/16 NW Bahamas and hit NE FL 10/19 producing a whopping 8.3” of rain at CHS:



1972: very strong nor’easter went up coast NC-NE 10/5-8 with strong winds and heavy rains (>4” NYC, nearly 4” Hatteras):



1982: strong winds/heavy rain (3.64” of rain Hatteras) from nor’easter 10/23-26 due to strong gradient between 1004 mb low Hatteras and 1030 mb high NE US. I experienced this in DC and still clearly recall it:




1991: “Perfect Storm” 10/30-11/1H #8 (Boston rain 2.69”):




1997: nor’easter 10/18-20 (Hatteras rain 1.4”):




2015: strong front pushed by 1045 mb SE Canadian high gets hung up along E coast with ~stationary upper low SE US and MH Joaquin ~stationary Bahamas interacting in a way few have ever seen resulting in >17”/historic flooding CHS Oct 1-4:


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So, all 9 very strong El Niño had one impactful to historic US E coast storm in Oct! Are the 12Z UKMET, Euro, Euro-AIFS, and Icon sniffing out something real next week for 2026’s turn? Based on NCSNOW’s intuition and the history noted above, I wouldn’t at this point discount at least the possibility of something notable happening near the E coast next week.
 
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First call for possible snow on 10-18:

Raleigh: 2-4"
Charlotte: 1-3"
Asheville: 3-6"
Albemarle: Trace- Dusting (I think they get dry slotted)
Wilmington: 4-8"

Stay tuned for more updates! I hope to see more models hop on board with this event.
 

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I mean as 2014 showed, anything is possible, but I will believe it when I see it, LOL. I believe the earliest measureable snowfall for Raleigh is November 6th, for reference (not sure about sub-measurable).

Certainly is possible for the mountains, though!
 
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