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Pattern Octoburn
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
That's where the much maligned "data smoothing" comes in.
A 10.4 ft high tide is being forecasted for Ft. Pulaski for late Friday morning:
According to the following table, that would be tied for the 7th highest tide on record there going back ~90 years, tied with the 8/11/1940 hurricane. It would be only barely lower than the highest tide on record there not associated with a TC, which is the 10.45’ of 11/7/2021!
This is the longest coastal flooding discussion I can ever recall being released by KCHS:
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR COASTAL CHARLESTON AND COLLETON
COUNTIES, ALONG WITH TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTY AS THEIR IMPACTS ARE
TIED TO THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE, FOR THE REMAINDER OF
OUR SOUTHEAST COAST PLEASE SEE THE NEXT DISCUSSION. MAJOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AS KING TIDES
CONTINUE, WITH ASTRO TIDES OF 7.06 FT MLLW, WHICH BY ITSELF IS
ALREADY ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE, TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 FOOT ARE
EXPECTED WHICH WILL BRING THE TIDE FORECAST OVER 8 FEET MLLW,
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AT 8.1 FT MLLW. AT THESE LEVELS,
WIDESPREAD AND HIGHLY IMPACTFUL COASTAL FLOODING OCCURS IN
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WITH NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE
AND WATER ENTERING SOME STRUCTURES. IMPACTS ALSO INCLUDE EROSION
AT AREA BEACHES, WITH LIMITED TO NO ACCESS TO DOCKS, PIERS, AND
SOME ISLANDS. MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
RESULTS IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTY.
WHILE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS AGAIN EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY
EVENING AS DEPARTURES RISE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP, WE ARE MOST CONCERNED FOR LATE
FRIDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE AS STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE
AND ASTRO TIDE FALLING TO JUST BELOW 7 FT MLLW, WHICH MAY AGAIN
RESULT IN MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING. THIS IS WHEN THE HIGHEST TIDE
IS EXPECTED AS DEPARTURES RISE TO NEAR 1.5 FT, WHICH SHOULD
BRING THE TIDE GAGE UP TO NEAR 8.5 FT MLLW. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH IN MAJOR FLOOD STAGE BEING REACHED, MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN
WIND DIRECTION AND WIND SPEED AROUND HIGH TIDE WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE JUST HOW HIGH ABOVE 8 FEET WE GO, WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
RESULTING IN HIGHER READINGS ABOVE 8.5 FT MLLW AND MORE
NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPING US CLOSER TO 8.0 FT MLLW. IF WE WERE TO
REACH 8.5 FT MLLW, MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN
TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTY. FOR LATE FRIDAY EVENING THE ASTRO TIDE
DROPS TO 5.6 FT MLLW RESULTING MINOR/MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
EXPECTED, WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING LATE
SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS ASTRO TIDE
PEAKS NEAR 6.72 FT MLLW, THOUGH WE'LL NEED TO SEE HOW THE TIDAL
DEPARTURES END UP TRENDING AS THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR
SOUTH. DUE TO THE RISK OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING, A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL CHARLESTON AND COLLETON
COUNTIES, VALID FROM 8 AM THURSDAY THROUGH 3 PM FRIDAY.
AT FORT PULASKI, WHICH IMPACTS AREAS FROM BEAUFORT COUNTY IN
SOUTH CAROLINA DOWN TO MCINTOSH COUNTY IN GEORGIA, LATE THURSDAY
MORNING'S ASTRONOMICAL TIDE OF 9.1 FT MLLW COMBINED WITH TIDAL
DEPARTURES OF JUST UNDER A FOOT WILL BRING THE AREA RIGHT TO
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST CRESTING AT 10
FT MLLW (MODERATE FLOOD STAGE). AT THESE LEVELS, HIGHWAY-80
CONNECTING TO TYBEE ISLAND STARTS TO SEE WATER ON IT AND
NUMEROUS ROADS BECOME IMPASSABLE SUCH AS SHIPYARD ROAD,
ISOLATING RESIDENTS ON BURNSIDE ISLAND.FLOODING WILL ALSO
IMPACT AREAS ON TYBEE ISLAND, WILMINGTON ISLAND, THE COFFEE
BLUFF COMMUNITY, OSSABAW ISLAND, SAPELO ISLAND, PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 17 SOUTH OF DARIEN. IN BRYAN COUNTY, WATER COULD BREACH
DOCKS NEAR FT MCALLISTER AND FLOODING IMPACTING PORTIONS OF MILL
HILL ROAD. IN LIBERTY COUNTY, FLOODING IMPACTS THE HALFMOON
LANDING AREA AND CATTLE HAMMOCK ROAD NEAR BERMUDA BLUFF
SUBDIVISION.
WE WILL LIKELY SEE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LATE THURSDAY EVENING
AS ASTRO TIDE PEAKS AT 7.74 FT MLLW, WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES
RISING THROUGHOUT THE DAY CLOSE TO 2 FT. SIMILAR TO CHARLESTON,
THE TIDE OF GREATEST CONCERN OCCURS LATE FRIDAY MORNING, AS THE
ASTRO TIDE IS AT 8.91 FT MLLW AND WITH THE CONTINUED STRONG
GRADIENT WINDS ELEVATED TIDAL DEPARTURES IS EXPECTED. CURRENT
FORECAST PEAKS AT 10.4 FT MLLW, BUT AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, THE
EXACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED IS GOING TO PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
HOW HIGH ABOVE 10 FT MLLW THE TIDE GAGE WILL GO. IF THE WIND
DIRECTION WERE TO SHIFT CLOSER TO NORTHERLY, TIDAL READINGS
CLOSER TO 10 FT MLLW WOULD BE EXPECTED, WHEREAS NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED RESULTING IN THE FORECAST OF 10.4
FT MLLW. AS THE TIDAL READINGS APPROACH 10.5 FT MLLW, COASTAL
FLOODING IMPACTS EXPAND ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COAST. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK FROM COASTAL FLOODING LATE FRIDAY
EVENING AS THE ASTRO TIDES FALLS TO 7.41 FT MLLW, THOUGH THERE
IS A RISK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE TIDAL
DEPARTURES TREND AS THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH.
According to the following table, that would be tied for the 7th highest tide on record there going back ~90 years, tied with the 8/11/1940 hurricane. It would be only barely lower than the highest tide on record there not associated with a TC, which is the 10.45’ of 11/7/2021!
This is the longest coastal flooding discussion I can ever recall being released by KCHS:
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR COASTAL CHARLESTON AND COLLETON
COUNTIES, ALONG WITH TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTY AS THEIR IMPACTS ARE
TIED TO THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE, FOR THE REMAINDER OF
OUR SOUTHEAST COAST PLEASE SEE THE NEXT DISCUSSION. MAJOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AS KING TIDES
CONTINUE, WITH ASTRO TIDES OF 7.06 FT MLLW, WHICH BY ITSELF IS
ALREADY ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE, TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 FOOT ARE
EXPECTED WHICH WILL BRING THE TIDE FORECAST OVER 8 FEET MLLW,
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AT 8.1 FT MLLW. AT THESE LEVELS,
WIDESPREAD AND HIGHLY IMPACTFUL COASTAL FLOODING OCCURS IN
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WITH NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE
AND WATER ENTERING SOME STRUCTURES. IMPACTS ALSO INCLUDE EROSION
AT AREA BEACHES, WITH LIMITED TO NO ACCESS TO DOCKS, PIERS, AND
SOME ISLANDS. MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
RESULTS IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTY.
WHILE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS AGAIN EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY
EVENING AS DEPARTURES RISE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP, WE ARE MOST CONCERNED FOR LATE
FRIDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE AS STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE
AND ASTRO TIDE FALLING TO JUST BELOW 7 FT MLLW, WHICH MAY AGAIN
RESULT IN MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING. THIS IS WHEN THE HIGHEST TIDE
IS EXPECTED AS DEPARTURES RISE TO NEAR 1.5 FT, WHICH SHOULD
BRING THE TIDE GAGE UP TO NEAR 8.5 FT MLLW. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH IN MAJOR FLOOD STAGE BEING REACHED, MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN
WIND DIRECTION AND WIND SPEED AROUND HIGH TIDE WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE JUST HOW HIGH ABOVE 8 FEET WE GO, WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
RESULTING IN HIGHER READINGS ABOVE 8.5 FT MLLW AND MORE
NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPING US CLOSER TO 8.0 FT MLLW. IF WE WERE TO
REACH 8.5 FT MLLW, MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN
TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTY. FOR LATE FRIDAY EVENING THE ASTRO TIDE
DROPS TO 5.6 FT MLLW RESULTING MINOR/MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
EXPECTED, WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING LATE
SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS ASTRO TIDE
PEAKS NEAR 6.72 FT MLLW, THOUGH WE'LL NEED TO SEE HOW THE TIDAL
DEPARTURES END UP TRENDING AS THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR
SOUTH. DUE TO THE RISK OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING, A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL CHARLESTON AND COLLETON
COUNTIES, VALID FROM 8 AM THURSDAY THROUGH 3 PM FRIDAY.
AT FORT PULASKI, WHICH IMPACTS AREAS FROM BEAUFORT COUNTY IN
SOUTH CAROLINA DOWN TO MCINTOSH COUNTY IN GEORGIA, LATE THURSDAY
MORNING'S ASTRONOMICAL TIDE OF 9.1 FT MLLW COMBINED WITH TIDAL
DEPARTURES OF JUST UNDER A FOOT WILL BRING THE AREA RIGHT TO
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST CRESTING AT 10
FT MLLW (MODERATE FLOOD STAGE). AT THESE LEVELS, HIGHWAY-80
CONNECTING TO TYBEE ISLAND STARTS TO SEE WATER ON IT AND
NUMEROUS ROADS BECOME IMPASSABLE SUCH AS SHIPYARD ROAD,
ISOLATING RESIDENTS ON BURNSIDE ISLAND.FLOODING WILL ALSO
IMPACT AREAS ON TYBEE ISLAND, WILMINGTON ISLAND, THE COFFEE
BLUFF COMMUNITY, OSSABAW ISLAND, SAPELO ISLAND, PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 17 SOUTH OF DARIEN. IN BRYAN COUNTY, WATER COULD BREACH
DOCKS NEAR FT MCALLISTER AND FLOODING IMPACTING PORTIONS OF MILL
HILL ROAD. IN LIBERTY COUNTY, FLOODING IMPACTS THE HALFMOON
LANDING AREA AND CATTLE HAMMOCK ROAD NEAR BERMUDA BLUFF
SUBDIVISION.
WE WILL LIKELY SEE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LATE THURSDAY EVENING
AS ASTRO TIDE PEAKS AT 7.74 FT MLLW, WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES
RISING THROUGHOUT THE DAY CLOSE TO 2 FT. SIMILAR TO CHARLESTON,
THE TIDE OF GREATEST CONCERN OCCURS LATE FRIDAY MORNING, AS THE
ASTRO TIDE IS AT 8.91 FT MLLW AND WITH THE CONTINUED STRONG
GRADIENT WINDS ELEVATED TIDAL DEPARTURES IS EXPECTED. CURRENT
FORECAST PEAKS AT 10.4 FT MLLW, BUT AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, THE
EXACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED IS GOING TO PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
HOW HIGH ABOVE 10 FT MLLW THE TIDE GAGE WILL GO. IF THE WIND
DIRECTION WERE TO SHIFT CLOSER TO NORTHERLY, TIDAL READINGS
CLOSER TO 10 FT MLLW WOULD BE EXPECTED, WHEREAS NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED RESULTING IN THE FORECAST OF 10.4
FT MLLW. AS THE TIDAL READINGS APPROACH 10.5 FT MLLW, COASTAL
FLOODING IMPACTS EXPAND ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COAST. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK FROM COASTAL FLOODING LATE FRIDAY
EVENING AS THE ASTRO TIDES FALLS TO 7.41 FT MLLW, THOUGH THERE
IS A RISK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE TIDAL
DEPARTURES TREND AS THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH.
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Two models you DEFINITELY want on your side!
Seeing 50 for a low on Sunday morning. Hello first 40s of the fall.