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Pattern October Thread
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Wait, this is just starting?
cd2play
Member
Getting to time of year where we get more stratiform rains.
Avalanche
Member
Time for a mile wide broken band to come through and deliver hope for rain that wont come to fruition.
All but the 0z gfs keeps the LR rather transient. Seeing a lot of 50/50 low-type activity, which should promote some occasional wedging. But the big stable west cost ridging pattern seems to take a break for a while.
The 0z gfs would give me confidence that we would be more below normal than above, once the pattern changes. The rest of the guidance seems variable, but at least the big heat and high dew points look to be gone....if it holds.
The 0z gfs would give me confidence that we would be more below normal than above, once the pattern changes. The rest of the guidance seems variable, but at least the big heat and high dew points look to be gone....if it holds.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Maybe western parts of the region. That stuff gets really strung out and diffuse but the time it gets here
Cant get anymore amazing for Oct than that.
Still solid fall weather with maybe a couple mid 70 days but even that is a relief from mid 80s at this time of year .. few points should be lower .. I think we can kiss the super uncomfortable days goodbye for now
Op gfs is looking too progressive with next weeks trough as usual
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Do I see a shortwave ??? Time to get my tornado chasing gear ready ?
Euro trying to find a way to find a warmer period, noticed this on the 12Z EPS yesterday but didn’t think much of it, per this look it would be transient tho 
I do like the big high on the euro spreading into the plains. Don't like the big ridge Amp from the rockies into Canada and the fractured trough... that's a recipe for a cutoff and warm/muggy if we didn't wedge or get a clean trough
It'll be interesting to see if the means are still washing the D7 and particularly D10 pattern too much and we stay more wavy and amped through at least the next 14 days.
Feels like we’re seeing this look for a reason repeatedly pop up 
A little back and forth classic fall time weather. About time we get back to normal around here. That cold shot behind this will probably be more intense then our first one
Close to turning it into a cutoff that gets stuck to our west
Yeah certainly too early to know the specifics but if that happens we could certainly see some severe prospects
Cold cold rain
I can hear the wishcasting of the southern wave being faster. About that time.
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Insert the pattern in October sometimes likes to mimic winter patterns comment
NoSnowATL
Member
Mini JB deserves his on thread. Guys crazy wrong 95% of the time and on everything including hurricane season.
NCSNOW
Member
Give me a + PNA Ridge late Nov through late Feb and ill gladly cash out and ride that one signal all the way through winter. SE winter pattern is almost exclusively dependent on what the eastern Pacific serves up.
Gotta love the 600+ hour European … unfortunately can’t be trusted but I’ll take it for now as it’s showing what I’ve been thinking could happen for a while with an early start to winter with the help of that early strat warming taking into effect much earlier than we usually get … haven’t had a thanksgiving flurry in a while ??
I’m waiting for BAM wx guy to start being posted in here he’s gotta be making some wild calls as of right now right lol
Need to be really careful on how we evolve the SPV. If you bother it but let it come back, typically it comes back stronger and harder to disrupt, there’s cases where failed attempts at SSWEs have lead to a very strong stratospheric polar vortex later on which ends up leading to a off the wall +AO
The one time I got to experience a snowfall before Thanksgiving was in November 2000… I had 4 inches in Concord where I was living at the time, and then never got more than flurries the rest of the winter
That was a great event full on mashed potatoes falling. Could have been an awesome 2 week period if the coastal low didn't miss east in early December
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cd2play
Member
Mr. Golf
Member
Some type of SSW event is our only chance to see a possible cold start to winter. A weaker pv for sure. Dont want it too early either because, imo, it's tough to see a sustainable cold pattern to produce snow and ice in the south and se other than your typical favored higher elevations
cd2play
Member
It would literally be an antisocial winter. Just like 2018-19.
Brent
Member
I dunno about winter but that high on Friday is a ?
Today was the first day in 130 we failed to hit 80
Today was the first day in 130 we failed to hit 80
Long range 00z EURO wasn't as aggressive with the troughing.
Will certainly make the difference, at least here, between average and below average temps.
Will certainly make the difference, at least here, between average and below average temps.