Pattern October Thread

[tennessee storm]

It's still cooler, this isn't Dec, Jan or Feb.... not sure what the expectation is for this time of the year. Is it above average, yes, is it down right warm yes, but you're not gonna get true arctic fronts rn with massive subfreezing temps. Heck average to a degree or two below is perfect walking weather, I've heard

We don’t get any changes in the pacific won’t matter what month winter we are in. Still going be pacific air . Could this be 11 12 winter repeat . Which is actually a top analog being discussed heading in to winter

 

[Metwannabe]

We don’t get any changes in the pacific won’t matter what month winter we are in. Still going be pacific air . Could this be 11 12 winter repeat . Which is actually a top analog being discussed heading in to winter

So I've heard

 

[cd2play]

We don’t get any changes in the pacific won’t matter what month winter we are in. Still going be pacific air . Could this be 11 12 winter repeat . Which is actually a top analog being discussed heading in to winter

Sure looks uncannily similar. Even Alaska.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Honestly, if its like 11-12 winter maybe thats for the best. After all, I've heard heating bills could be really high this year so a warmer winter would help a lot of people financially.

 

[cd2play]

Honestly, if its like 11-12 winter maybe thats for the best. After all, I've heard heating bills could be really high this year so a warmer winter would help a lot of people financially.

Plus we won’t have to worry about our neighbors 30 miles away getting rocked by a snowstorm while we get snow holed. This way everyone misses. We would all be in this together.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro still is the most aggressive with a severe wx threat

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro still is the most aggressive with a severe wx threat View attachment 93139View attachment 93140View attachment 93141View attachment 93142

These are nighttime soundings… even with a global model that typically wants to decouple the BL at night, it’s shows soundings capable of rotating, surface based thunderstorms

 

[SD]

Goodness

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Didn’t realize the UK just completely switched to a severe weather setup east of I-77. Pretty aggressive parameters for all hazards

 

[SD]

Didn’t realize the UK just completely switched to a severe weather setup east of I-77. Pretty aggressive parameters for all hazards View attachment 93147View attachment 93148View attachment 93149View attachment 93150View attachment 93151

Not really used to this set up in fall so not sure what to expect. This would be a fairly high end by NC standards look in spring

 

[SD]

Upgrade?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I expected much more cold from this deep closed off feature but it’s nothing notable at all, just a decent late season chill at best

 

[Myfrotho704_]

It’s still a decent change of things tho compared to early next week

 

[tennessee storm]

Upgrade?
View attachment 93152

Pretty simple , no true cold air to really tap in to even for a deep closed low …

 

[SD]

Pretty simple , no true cold air to really tap in to even for a deep closed low …

Yep when the air mass is basically off the pac it's only going to be so cold and dry. I'd take it though

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yep when the air mass is basically off the pac it's only going to be so cold and dry. I'd take it though

I’d take a cool down like that to, highs in the 60s lows around the mid 40s is great fall weather

 

[SD]

I’d take a cool down like that to, highs in the 60s lows around the mid 40s is great fall weather

Yeah but the bigger issue is they broke the euro. This thing has been a cut off machine since the upgrade. If that goes into winter where we start getting enough cold air it's going to be a tough road

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah but the bigger issue is they broke the euro. This thing has been a cut off machine since the upgrade. If that goes into winter where we start getting enough cold air it's going to be a tough road

20+ inch snow runs this winter ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Only if it was January

 

[SD]

20+ inch snow runs this winter ?

Yup. Maybe it's just a product of the current pattern so once we start losing the blocky stuff in Canada this will stop happening but if it doesn't we should see some classic meltdowns