Pattern October Thread

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro is also about to cut something off around the TX PH, probably gonna be a episode of severe wx with it

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I didn’t think was possible in late October with 561dm cutoff with no cool air but here we are

 

[Zander98al]

Has Christmas come early...?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Give me EPS or give me death

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Perhaps, but those types of storms are rare in the first place.

For every year like the 2 you mentioned, they're easily outnumbered by winters like 2011-2012, or even 2007-2008 (which was very warm, but snowy only for the Great Lakes and NE).

2007-08 was quite snowy in my area of West Georgia. We had 2 snow events in the same week in January 2008.

 

[Chazwin]

I didn’t think was possible in late October with 561dm cutoff with no cool air but here we are View attachment 93031View attachment 93032

That itself is why I don’t think you can have faith in any model more than a few days out. If that 500mb look were to verify, then the temperature map would be much cooler than what’s shown… not record breaking or anything out of the normal for this time of the year, but definitely cooler

 

[Myfrotho704_]

@Chazwin
Even the EPS has this trough but not much cold to boot. The upper level low was once energy in the pacific, which explains the lack of cold, there’s no cold source, along with a burnt source region

 

[SD]

That itself is why I don’t think you can have faith in any model more than a few days out. If that 500mb look were to verify, then the temperature map would be much cooler than what’s shown… not record breaking or anything out of the normal for this time of the year, but definitely cooler

Pretty classic polar pac airmass behind it (already a little recovery ahead of the next wave in the central US). Big diurnal swings lows in the upper 30s to low 40s highs around 70 looks good to me.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Well hello there

 

[tennessee storm]

@Chazwin
Even the EPS has this trough but not much cold to boot. The upper level low was once energy in the pacific, which explains the lack of cold, there’s no cold source, along with a burnt source region View attachment 93041View attachment 93042

The looks still in pacific indicate this trough will be very transient , should be In and right back out

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I still have been seeing this pop up ever since the UK picked up on it but it’s getting into a range where it’s something to bring up, maybe some severe thunderstorms with this, certainly enough wind energy for organized severe thunderstorms

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I didn’t think was possible in late October with 561dm cutoff with no cool air but here we are View attachment 93031View attachment 93032

Luckily this is just at night Time when we are all asleep but also it just keeps us the same temperature for a period of days with the upper level lows .. I knew these bowling balls were going to be pesky on the models but hey what do I know ??‍ Regardless we get a humidish 65 degrees for like 2-3 night and daytime

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I still have been seeing this pop up ever since the UK picked up on it but it’s getting into a range where it’s something to bring up, maybe some severe thunderstorms with this, certainly enough wind energy for organized severe thunderstorms View attachment 93048View attachment 93049View attachment 93050View attachment 93051View attachment 93052

Definitely interesting we are getting a little sneaky severe weather mini season here over the next week or so with this and then the bowling balls that could be heading our way that the models got happy about today .. If it’s going to be above average at least give us the ACTION

 

[Montanasnow30]

I know I’m up here in the north but if these temps can stay like this all winter I’ll definitely be more than happy especially after what I had to deal with last winter

 

[Myfrotho704_]

18z icon still holds looking like the euro

 

[JakkelWx]

@Chazwin
Even the EPS has this trough but not much cold to boot. The upper level low was once energy in the pacific, which explains the lack of cold, there’s no cold source, along with a burnt source region View attachment 93041View attachment 93042

Same thing was happening last winter, looked all appetizing and such until you look at the Pacific. It's happening again this year. Trough in the east and yet, no cold air to be found.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The difference at H5 under day 7 is just amazing on models

 

[SD]

The difference at H5 under day 7 is just amazing on models View attachment 93058

Take the middle between the gfs and icon/euro and you have a really nice rain event for most of NC

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

The difference at H5 under day 7 is just amazing on models View attachment 93058

These upper level lows are always tricky and models never know what the heck is going on with them any time of year .. here’s another case .. guess we will have to wait a bit longer to know for sure but it’s coming into short-medium range so sooner rather than later would be great lol

 

[SD]

Lol