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Pattern October Thread

smast16 said:
I bring this up as a novice, so feel free to correct me, but could the actual impact of that warm blob be that it's nearby the cold blob leading to increased low pressure systems generating along the temperature difference.

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And as a result the Lows keep wanting to set the trough in Eastern Pac?
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While it’s typically H5 then sfc, this is definitely a interesting take and one that does make sense, would probably at least think that would allow sfc low pressure that would then allow slightly lower heights then normal and a better environment where lower heights from other areas can slip in
 
SD said:
Euro looked pretty decent for severe to our west
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That euro run was pretty active those lightning density maps are lit up past day 5-6 from the southern plains to us, also that system that tries to get cutoff towards day 8-10 on models is interesting as well
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
While it’s typically H5 then sfc, this is definitely a interesting take and one that does make sense, would probably at least think that would allow sfc low pressure that would then allow slightly lower heights then normal and a better environment where lower heights from other areas can slip in
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Indeed.

You can you see the pac warm pool reflected on the models as what has been a semi permanent ridge/recurring ridge.
cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1 (1).png
gfs_z500a_npac_12.png

This acts to A. Accelerate the jet as systems pass by
gfs_uv250_npac_13.png
B. Wave break near the WC
gfs_z500_mslp_npac_fh66-102.gif
 
smast16 said:
Even Judah's optimism is resting on "Good thing the CFS Sucks"...

Edit: See Ya in March @Thor
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I'm not even sure it matters for the south whether it's a warm or cold winter. Most people on here only care about snow and some of the snowiest winters I've seen were in very warm winters.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
I'm not even sure it matters for the south whether it's a warm or cold winter. Most people on here only care about snow and some of the snowiest winters I've seen were in very warm winters.
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That may be true for Central Indiana, since "very warm" there is still cold.

Not so sure that applies to the South.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
How does it not make sense ? I think both 91-92 and 01-02 were warm winters yet very snowy. 2017-18 very warm but extremely snowy. I'm talking about Georgia.
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See where u going with this. . And your correct, but I think it applies to more your area Midwest northern plains area, we’re u can be little warmer and get more snow .
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
How does it not make sense ? I think both 91-92 and 01-02 were warm winters yet very snowy. 2017-18 very warm but extremely snowy. I'm talking about Georgia.
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Let's be real. It's about about timing here in the South. The jet stream dipping down at the right angle at the right time. Cooler than average winters just increase the odds a bit of a big snowstorm. Wasn't Texas warmer than average for December and January this year before they had a historic Feburary?
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Let's be real. It's about about timing here in the South. The jet stream dipping down at the right angle at the right time. Cooler than average winters just increase the odds a bit of a big snowstorm. Wasn't Texas warmer than average for December and January this year before they had a historic Feburary?
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Cooler than avg may increase odds a little but honestly I don't think it's a huge deal whether it's a warm or cold winter. We can score in a warm or cold winter and all it takes is for one snowstorm to make for a good winter in the south.
 
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