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Pattern October Thread

GaStorm said:
Correct me if I'm wrong but don't a good number of winters that produce something good for us have warm falls? Maybe this is good since the pattern has time to change and recent Ninas haven't followed the typical cookie cutter outlook either.
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I need to research the frequency of that when I have time to be able to answer you.
 
First Digital snowfall of the season for NC. Off the Lakes Cutter,swings a small pocket of cold enough 850's over the high peaks to spit wet flakes. Day or two before the trick or treaters hit the front porches.

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Myfrotho704_ said:
Read the thread, while I think tropical SSTs have more of a impact, there’s some sort of loop happening in the NPAC

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I remember all of the attention the warm blob got. Wasn't it there for a few years? I do remember one winter where there was a ridge there that was attributed to it. And then I remember hype about subsequent winters where it was going to cause a but western ridge/eastern trough, which didn't quite pan out.
 
Rain Cold said:
I remember all of the attention the warm blob got. Wasn't it there for a few years? I do remember one winter where there was a ridge there that was attributed to it. And then I remember hype about subsequent winters where it was going to cause a but western ridge/eastern trough, which didn't quite pan out.
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Tis the season for everything to get nitpicked to death regarding winter.
 
SD said:
Tis the season for everything to get nitpicked to death regarding winter.
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Yep. I don't doubt that a big pool of anomalously cold or warm water up there exerts some influence on the pattern. But I guarantee you there are a lot of other forcing mechanisms that can and will override it. But who knows, maybe everything will align for a big -PNA and raging Pac jet (which begins way upstream of the cold pool) to become the dominant winter pattern. I guess we'll see.
 
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Rain Cold said:
Yep. I don't doubt that a big pool of anomalously cold or warm water up there exerts some influence on the pattern. But I guarantee you there are a lot of other forcing mechanisms that can and will override it. But who knows, maybe everything will align for a big -PNA and raging Pac jet (which begins way upstream of the cold pool) to become the dominant winter pattern. I guess we'll see.
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Agreed. I bet the next thing will be the strat warming on the gfsgfs_Tz10_nhem_33 (7).png

I don't follow the SSTs enough to know so maybe someone can chime in but was that cold pool there before we started dropping troughs down the west coast or no? It looks like over the last 7 days that cool pool has warmed slightly
 
SD said:
View attachment 92966
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But that wasn't there at 12Z yesterday, which was my point. Halloween wasn't in jeopardy because the Gfs threw out one wet solution at 300+ hrs.

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Now if we can get a similar solution to 0z for more than a single run, and inside 144 hrs, then I'll begin to get excited.

Till then, business as usual
 
smast16 said:
But that wasn't there at 12Z yesterday, which was my point. Halloween wasn't in jeopardy because the Gfs threw out one wet solution at 300+ hrs.

View attachment 92969

Now if we can get a similar solution to 0z for more than a single run, and inside 144 hrs, then I'll begin to get excited.

Till then, business as usual
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Yeah I understand what you are saying I just thought it was funny the gfs/euro switched places with almost the same result. I think we might be looking at at least out first widespread decent rain event in a while leading up to Halloween but I question these big bowling balls
 
SD said:
Agreed. I bet the next thing will be the strat warming on the gfsView attachment 92970

I don't follow the SSTs enough to know so maybe someone can chime in but was that cold pool there before we started dropping troughs down the west coast or no? It looks like over the last 7 days that cool pool has warmed slightly
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I think it's been there a good while now. Strat warmings are fun. We usually get some good Judah Cohen quotes during those. Then we get to watch the PV drop into Siberia!
 
I’m still always gonna be way more convinced/agree that SST temps in the tropics are far more a bigger factor then the mid latitudes, but I still wonder if mid latitude SSTs do have little effect and help lock something in time to time
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I’m still always gonna be way more convinced/agree that SST temps in the tropics are far more a bigger factor then the mid latitudes, but I still wonder if mid latitude SSTs do have little effect and help lock something in time to time
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I bring this up as a novice, so feel free to correct me, but could the actual impact of that warm blob be that it's nearby the cold blob leading to increased low pressure systems generating along the temperature difference.

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And as a result the Lows keep wanting to set the trough in Eastern Pac?
 
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