Pattern October Thread

[NorthDFWwx]

Wudge View attachment 92903

500mb heights pushing 594dm? Wow...

 

[Myfrotho704_]

500mb heights pushing 594dm? Wow...

Yeah if there no wedge for the Carolinas (which I’m sure there will be some type of wedge but where it sets up is the question) the SE is basically gonna see what we saw last week

 

[NorthDFWwx]

Yeah if there no wedge for the Carolinas (which I’m sure there will be some type of wedge but where it sets up is the question) the SE is basically gonna see what we saw last week

We're going to torch here regardless of what happens that way.

It's really going to be a question of whether it's a wet/grungy above average pattern or a "hot"/dry above average pattern.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

We're going to torch here regardless of what happens that way.

It's really going to be a question of whether it's a wet/grungy above average pattern or a "hot"/dry above average pattern.

Pretty amazing I saw yesterday’s 12z euro on twitter yesterday and it was a constant stream of 60-70 degree dewpoints and summer like temps out that way, just highly anomalous

 

[NorthDFWwx]

Pretty amazing I saw yesterday’s 12z euro on twitter yesterday and it was a constant stream of 60-70 degree dewpoints and summer like temps out that way, just highly anomalous

Probably going to be looking at delayed foliage too if the models' current depiction verifies.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Pretty amazing I saw yesterday’s 12z euro on twitter yesterday and it was a constant stream of 60-70 degree dewpoints and summer like temps out that way, just highly anomalous

Summer like temps out his way would be 95+. That's pretty incredible for late October. Maybe Dallas will even sneak in a 100 in early November ?

 

[SD]

@Myfrotho704_ does wxbell have eps 200mb CHI?

 

[LickWx]

We're going to torch here regardless of what happens that way.

It's really going to be a question of whether it's a wet/grungy above average pattern or a "hot"/dry above average pattern.

Thats awesome, yall have that now then it shifts east for the winter. Man!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

@Myfrotho704_ does wxbell have eps 200mb CHI?

Unfortunately no but got the ECMWF 200mb CHI, has forcing in around the IO (ph1)

 

[BHS1975]

Abruptly cold November after our summtober? View attachment 92891

That's the way it's been for years now with Nov the only normal to below normal month.


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[SD]

Unfortunately no but got the ECMWF 200mb CHI, has forcing in around the IO (ph1) View attachment 92910View attachment 92911

I'd be happier with that than what we have now lol at least we would be advancing the trough out of the goa

 

[BHS1975]

BHS, is that you? lol, j/k.

No it's the new new norm.


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[cd2play]

I'm sorry, but until that ridge gets out of here, we're going to torch, regardless of what the temps are the rest of the globe. You can't chew on a turd and expect it to taste like candy!

 

[SD]

Mjo P1ish..... maybe we are finally seeing the change to get out of the big pac trough

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Mjo P1ish..... maybe we are finally seeing the change to get out of the big pac trough
View attachment 92912

Have a feeling it’s gonna make a return sometime in DJF and waste away a couple weeks worth of winter

 

[BufordWX]

This time last year models were starting to show the beginning signs of what would become a major ice storm for Oklahoma. Definitely not seeing anything near that this October.

Happy hour GFS from exactly a year ago:

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

This time last year models were starting to show the beginning signs of what would become a major ice storm for Oklahoma. Definitely not seeing anything near that this October.

Happy hour GFS from exactly a year ago:View attachment 92913

Delayed but not denied. That will be the theme for this winter.

 

[cd2play]

Delayed but not denied. That will be the theme for every winter.

Fixed

 

[SD]

Have a feeling it’s gonna make a return sometime in DJF and waste away a couple weeks worth of winter

Yeah no doubt it seems like the base state pattern for this winter.

We are slowly creeping to that point where you can start to at least draw some ideas from the mjo and its propagation

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah no doubt it seems like the base state pattern for this winter.

We are slowly creeping to that point where you can start to at least draw some ideas from the mjo and its propagation

At least you can do this with that base state pattern with that sort of pacific look just need Atlantic cooperation but cold air could be hard to come by

I wasn't too sure where to put this, but I developed a program that finds all snowfall events within a set of coordinates, then plots them using the ERA-5 database. Then, the data is matched to the 500 mbar data and plotted as well. With this, I was able to compare the climatology between Raleigh and Charlotte snowfall at the 500 mbar level.View attachment 91959View attachment 91962
View attachment 91957View attachment 91958View attachment 91955