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Pattern October Thread

I could care less , it’s October I want it sunny and mild . I wouldn’t be hurt if it never rained another drop this month . Come November though I wouldn’t mind a few CAD days in the 50s and upper 40s with some steady rain . Still though, November is normally a mild month as well. The weather is amazing right now . Good crisp mornings clear crisp nights warm sunny days .
 
Lickwx said:
I could care less , it’s October I want it sunny and mild . I wouldn’t be hurt if it never rained another drop this month . Come November though I wouldn’t mind a few CAD days in the 50s and upper 40s with some steady rain . Still though, November is normally a mild month as well. The weather is amazing right now . Good crisp mornings clear crisp nights warm sunny days .
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Yeah certainly nothing out of the norm of our new norm
 
Lickwx said:
Ehh, our October norm is the same as it ever was . Tho that’s a debate for another thread …
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When the pv leaves the hemisphere or is parked in AK/Npac average or just below is going to be the best we can do. It's weird how that gets ignored and it's global warming and new norms
 
GFS does show some weak CAD next Monday but it’s quickly scoured.
also @Lickwx can you do me a favor and dig up the record for Charlotte for oct 24th. I’m sure it isn’t far 0F920923-7F59-4C28-A639-8EDC6AC6D978.png
 
SD said:
When the pv leaves the hemisphere or is parked in AK/Npac average or just below is going to be the best we can do. It's weird how that gets ignored and it's global warming and new norms
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Yeah the PV at 10/30/50mb is on the other side with a dominating pacific trough, really isn’t global warming it’s just a combination of things that could allow for some really warm temps, I’ve been seeing GW being thrown around for the pattern but there’s something responsible for it (as there usually is)
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looks like a average stale pattern to me, nothing going up in the pacific to deliver cold, just Canadian ridging, mostly cooler pacific origin stuff which isn’t great
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Yep I don't see what's interesting about it unless you live in the northern tier of the country which I think he is speaking for. Plus to be honest I wouldn't
trust a mean past D5 at the moment. There's too much volatility and smaller scale stuff that's going to drive our sensible weather that's going to get washed in the means right now. I mean look at the plumes and even the ops the gfs went from 50s to 80s over the weekend into early next week. The icon now has a closed low moving in early next week. The euro went from a big closed low sliding down the EC to a ridge.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Cold patterns = more fun possible winter weather funny looking things fall from sky

warm patterns = sweat and rain we also see this for 8 of our 12 months

I think the excitement is for something different that we haven’t seen and been accustomed to for sooooo long

heck people get excited after a long winter when the first warm maps start showing up and show possible severe weather those are fun cause it’s a change of pace from the normal cold cold cold rain no snow pattern for several months .. I think that’s where it stems from
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No, you see rain. Go west young man and you will find a Chatham County desert.
 
It's crazy how torchy this pattern really is. If we sneak enough energy down the eastern side of the ridge to at least see at least the wedge regions near normal that a big W to me it could be very very warm otherwise. This pattern is close to about as bad as it gets in the October through Feb season when you want cool to cold
 
SD said:
Yep I don't see what's interesting about it unless you live in the northern tier of the country which I think he is speaking for. Plus to be honest I wouldn't
trust a mean past D5 at the moment. There's too much volatility and smaller scale stuff that's going to drive our sensible weather that's going to get washed in the means right now. I mean look at the plumes and even the ops the gfs went from 50s to 80s over the weekend into early next week. The icon now has a closed low moving in early next week. The euro went from a big closed low sliding down the EC to a ridge.
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This is Lowkey one of the biggest flops since the feb fail2AA8C716-A928-44A3-BEB1-8C938FD62AED.gif17A4A3D6-B82C-4D2B-B52E-0989C6318418.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This is Lowkey one of the biggest flips since the feb failView attachment 92906View attachment 92907
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Yeah once the models ditched the idea of any ridging in the NAO region and tilted the ridge east with more pac influence it went from great to turd. It'll be interesting to see if we end up cooler than the gfs but there isn't a lot to propel any cold too far S in the wedge zones. It's really a hard pattern right now with the fight between the torch and whatever local cold there is
 
The averages now at DFW are now 77/56. So the next few days will actually be a few degrees above average.

Unfortunately, this past weekend has done a number on the October monthly average, back down to +2.7*F after yesterday.
 
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