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Pattern October Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
tennessee storm
Member
That gulf Alaska low just won’t move out… that’s going be a serious problem
Afraid heading to to winter . Get prepared to get screwed by the pacific , it’s a hot mess for sure
Afraid heading to to winter . Get prepared to get screwed by the pacific , it’s a hot mess for sure
smast16
Member
JFC... Did he really just parade a 600+ hr +PNA? Because that ever happens.
And they gave him a bluecheck? SMDH
smast16
Member
It's Oct 12, and we're already down to 600+ hr pattern flips and SSWe. Not many straws left the grasp. Man it's gonna be a long warm winter boys.
tennessee storm
Member
Get prepared for cutter city this winter . Lake cutters here we go …
Downeastnc
Member
The ridge isn't a bad idea we are entering that window where some pac ridging becomes more likely in a nina year. The amplitude/location along with how the BN heights across AK evolve are the question
Yessir!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Ouch.
Hopefully in the next few years I’ll have the archive of winter storms for NC fully complete, with the longer term goal of making it into a gridded dataset that’s been quality controlled so I can take a much more detailed, closer look at things like this.
Started back up on it again this past weekend, just very time consuming to keep track of everything and manually check each and every observation individually. Oth, there’s so much bad/spurious and missing data (some of which really isn’t missing) that needs to be thoroughly sorted through, I don’t think there’s an easier way to do this.
Hopefully in the next few years I’ll have the archive of winter storms for NC fully complete, with the longer term goal of making it into a gridded dataset that’s been quality controlled so I can take a much more detailed, closer look at things like this.
Started back up on it again this past weekend, just very time consuming to keep track of everything and manually check each and every observation individually. Oth, there’s so much bad/spurious and missing data (some of which really isn’t missing) that needs to be thoroughly sorted through, I don’t think there’s an easier way to do this.
I agree that the Pacific is very likely going to lead to a mild winter for the SE. But calling this a “Serious” problem is a bit melodramatic, isn’t it? It sounds like you’re intentionally trying to rile up cold winter lovers. Plus you’d probably like it yourself based on your preferences if I’m reading those preferences correctly. So for you, it wouldn’t be a problem at all, right? Unless you’re playing both sides.
It doesn't seem like we are going to be able to lose this cloud deck today
Back to back cool mornings 
If we can get winds to die quite a few locations might be able to out perform these numbers
If we can get winds to die quite a few locations might be able to out perform these numbers
Incoming ice box pattern ? 
I wish I could believe that cutting off and slight retrograde off the WC but it's so easy to get burned. I did notice on the eps plots there was a really chilly cluster post D10 so there's some support for it. With how the pac has been so active and progressive its hard to get on board
Indeed. I'm interested to see if the drier conditions around here lead to better colors vs the last 2 years
Geez that source region roast did a number I was expecting way more BN to our NE with such a deep TPV
Still not really tapping much arctic stuff the wave is more polar pacific and any influx of cold is cut off. I thought the wave moving through Canada after d10 might drive south and give us some legit stuff but the ridge got flat and wide and it mainly goes into new England
Just not a fan of this large trough in the pacific at all 