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Severe October 21-22nd Severe Weather

BirdManDoomW

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#1
Given what’s been occurring out west and the slight risks issued for the S/E for today and tomorrow. Wind damage and tornadoes possible.
 

BirdManDoomW

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#2
SPC notes supercells possible central NC/SC Piedmont with the slight risk risk for Raleigh eastward tomorrow. Marginal Risk surrounds this area. Tornado odds increased to 5%.
 
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#13
SPC highlighting a surface low potential tomorrow and how that plays into NC tor threat.....if that low forms chances of a few decent tornados goes up and I wouldnt be surprised to see a EHC area with 10% tor in NC if it happens....

However, instability will remain rather weak
from southeast VA northward where heating will not be as strong and
midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. Where stronger heating is
forecast across parts of central/southern NC southward into northern
FL, MLCAPE values may reach as high as 1500-2000 J/kg in a narrow
corridor ahead of the front. Some forecast guidance suggests a weak
secondary surface low may develop in the VA/NC Piedmont vicinity
during the late morning. If this occurs, backed low level winds will
develop ahead of the cold front across parts of mainly
central/eastern NC into southeast VA. As a result, this could
locally increase tornado potential across this area.
 

BirdManDoomW

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#14
I will try i77 tomorrow but don’t plan going on any further East so they better develop overhead or eastern foothills.
 

BirdManDoomW

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#15
Here is my call map. I think development takes place a little further south-west after 8am like the NAM showes (Boone to Charlotte) with a bit of a skip in terms of severe for AVL and GSP. Maybe 1 tornado gets going from the activity out ahead and some wind damages from the line. Further north east I think Winston-Salem to VA Piedmont and OBX could see scattered tornadoes. RDU is in a bit of a gray area or gradient with little activity to some nearby in the vicinity. C70CD567-69BF-4125-B92F-BBE33ED440EB.jpeg
 
S

snowcool776

Guest
#18
SPC highlighting a surface low potential tomorrow and how that plays into NC tor threat.....if that low forms chances of a few decent tornados goes up and I wouldnt be surprised to see a EHC area with 10% tor in NC if it happens....

However, instability will remain rather weak
from southeast VA northward where heating will not be as strong and
midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. Where stronger heating is
forecast across parts of central/southern NC southward into northern
FL, MLCAPE values may reach as high as 1500-2000 J/kg in a narrow
corridor ahead of the front. Some forecast guidance suggests a weak
secondary surface low may develop in the VA/NC Piedmont vicinity
during the late morning. If this occurs, backed low level winds will
develop ahead of the cold front across parts of mainly
central/eastern NC into southeast VA. As a result, this could
locally increase tornado potential across this area.
mock forecast for 191022.png
If this is what the SPC is forecasting, this could be what it looks like tomorrow.
NOTE: This is not official. Keep in mind that this could change at any time.
@metwannabe this might interest you if you live near the VA border.
 

Myfrotho704_

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#26
While thermodynamics ain’t impressive, wind shear is, more of a HSLC setup, hrrr shows this, even with Garbo cape, it shows some suercells getting going near lake Norman/I-77 East with only 300-700 jkg of cape, but low LCLs and strong wind profiles, only thing is tho is that wind profiles actually support more linear stuff altho sfc winds may back from the SE 577BDE53-26E0-4680-8FFA-530F944A05AA.png DAE814DF-62EB-4AE8-8A7E-9B10138B9BCF.png 28EA9E3D-A8A9-471E-9F03-1CF2C064DE7F.png
 

metwannabe

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#29
Short range models still not overly excited about this threat and with all the low clouds, drizzle and light showers around I have a hard time seeing enough instability to get much going today. If all that breaks and the sun pops then maybe, since wind profiles still seem decent
 
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Wake Forest, NC
#30
Short range models still not overly excited about this threat and with all the low clouds, drizzle and light showers around I have a hard time seeing enough instability to get much going today. If all that breaks and the sun pops then maybe, since wind profiles still seem decent
I was coming on to post the same thing. Just seems too overcast right now for anything to pop off.
 
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