SPC highlighting a surface low potential tomorrow and how that plays into NC tor threat.....if that low forms chances of a few decent tornados goes up and I wouldnt be surprised to see a EHC area with 10% tor in NC if it happens....
However, instability will remain rather weak
from southeast VA northward where heating will not be as strong and
midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. Where stronger heating is
forecast across parts of central/southern NC southward into northern
FL, MLCAPE values may reach as high as 1500-2000 J/kg in a narrow
corridor ahead of the front. Some forecast guidance suggests a weak
secondary surface low may develop in the VA/NC Piedmont vicinity
during the late morning. If this occurs, backed low level winds will
develop ahead of the cold front across parts of mainly
central/eastern NC into southeast VA. As a result, this could
locally increase tornado potential across this area.
I was coming on to post the same thing. Just seems too overcast right now for anything to pop off.Short range models still not overly excited about this threat and with all the low clouds, drizzle and light showers around I have a hard time seeing enough instability to get much going today. If all that breaks and the sun pops then maybe, since wind profiles still seem decent