Severe October 10-13th Severe Threat

[BufordWX]

Back to back storm systems look likely to produce some severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern plains and possibly as far east as the Mississippi River. With one system moving through Sunday/Monday and another Tuesday/Wednesday.

System 1
10/10 - 10/11 (Sunday-Monday)
For Sunday the SPC has a 30% region defined for areas between Tulsa and Dallas. Storms look to form along the dry line somewhere around western or central Oklahoma in the late afternoon to evening hours before merging into more of a squall line later in the evening. Right now it looks like more of a wind and hail event with a more limited tornado potential. By Monday the severe threat should shift more towards Arkansas.


System 2:
10/12-10/13 (Tuesday/Wednesday)
For Tuesday the SPC currently has a 15% region from western and central Oklahoma to northern Texas. This system looks to have more to work with then the first one but the timing of it could make or break it. Right now the GFS is faster by developing storms across the region by the afternoon and evening hours while the Euro is slightly slower bringing things into Wednesday morning which could temper the severe threat a bit. It also looks like there may be some potential for storms to develop ahead of the main line which could increase the chance of all modes of severe weather.

GFS:
Euro:

 

[SD]

Boom

 

[BufordWX]

The 06z NAM was massively slower then other runs.

 

[BufordWX]

Day 3 Outlook:



Day 5 Outlook:

 

[BufordWX]

Looking ahead a bit to the Tuesday-Wednesday system still shows some pretty significant timing differences. One example is with the warm sector placement being significantly different on Tuesday evening with the Euro much more to the south/slower then the GFS, but it still rockets them north overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, but could certainly lessen the severe risk a bit especially further north and east. Will be interesting to see if the 12z Euro is faster.

GFS:

Euro:

 

[BufordWX]

Looking ahead a bit to the Tuesday-Wednesday system still shows some pretty significant timing differences. One example is with the warm sector placement being significantly different on Tuesday evening with the Euro much more to the south/slower then the GFS, but it still rockets them north overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, but could certainly lessen the severe risk a bit especially further north and east. Will be interesting to see if the 12z Euro is faster.

GFS:
View attachment 92366
Euro:
View attachment 92365

Well the 12z Euro definitely shifted a bit to the north. What’s more interesting is that development late on Tuesday way ahead of the main front. Will be very interesting to see what the CAMs show when they get into range in a few days

 

[BufordWX]

Long range HRRR looks a little stormy in OKC on Sunday.

 

[Brent]

Long range HRRR looks a little stormy in OKC on Sunday.View attachment 92403

I cant wait something to break this heat

 

[BufordWX]

I cant wait something to break this heat

Same here. I think we will finally be done with “Summer” after Sunday.

 

[Brent]

Same here. I think we will finally be done with “Summer” after Sunday.

I hope so because I'm good not seeing another 90 til May ?

 

[BufordWX]

Day 2 Outlook:

 

[BufordWX]

 

[Tarheel1]

Wed/ Thursday, could get stormy my way!?

 

[BufordWX]

00z HRRR forms some storms west of OKC late tomorrow afternoon before forming a pretty solid squall line from Tulsa down through central Texas that sweeps through in the evening. Gonna have to watch those initial cells while they are still discrete, but it looks like a wind and spin up tornado threat will still exist within the main line as the LLJ strengthens through the evening.

 

[BufordWX]

Hold up a minute. I actually thought they would keep this at Enhanced. SPC not messing around.

“A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST ACROSS A
PORTION OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND ARE EXPECTED.”

 

[Brent]

Wow shocked at the moderate especially given it looks linear here after dark from what I saw on the news

 

[BufordWX]

HRRR has a discrete supercell traveling along I-44. Something to watch for especially given the population. Definitely going to be interesting to see how the convective initiation goes and how long/how many storms can remain discrete will be telling to how everything pans out tonight. Looks like the first storms fire around 4-6 PM

 

[NorthDFWwx]

For what little it's worth though, I think today's event is the first time this entire season that every short-term CAM has agreed on a single outcome, and they all look good for DFW.

Regardless, my expectations are completely shot after this disaster season.

 

[BufordWX]

 

[Downeastnc]

These guys have been pretty spot on this year for the most part...