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Pattern Novemburrr

Meh, next... Lol

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_20.png
 
metwannabe said:
Let's see what the GFS tries to do with our energy. ICON nice little shift, pac ridge smidge taller, separation from northern energy and decent sw shift

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It's a good track on the icon and the early Sunday timing isn't bad at all but the sub 850 layer isn't that great. If we are going to have to cool from the sfc to 900 we are going to need a strong wave that can generate banded heavy precip. A marginal wave with mainly light precip is going to end up with a lot of 37 and light rain reports
 
SD said:
It's a good track on the icon and the early Sunday timing isn't bad at all but the sub 850 layer isn't that great. If we are going to have to cool from the sfc to 900 we are going to need a strong wave that can generate banded heavy precip. A marginal wave with mainly light precip is going to end up with a lot of 37 and light rain reports
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Something tells me a NAM run will give us the rates we need .. might not actually happen but I’m sure it’ll show us something we want to see ?
 
Been dry this month - current MTD in Chattanooga stands at 0.70", and even the wettest ensemble in the GEFS plumes through month end only has an additional 0.26". The last time we finished a month under 1" was back in October 2013, and it hasn't happened in the month of November since 1953! Also, our daily max MTD is only 0.25" which is the lowest in a November since 1917!
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Something tells me a NAM run will give us the rates we need .. might not actually happen but I’m sure it’ll show us something we want to see ?
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Its really not that far away tbh and if we were in the heart of winter the icon probably isn't rain. Given the time of year though with still marginally cold air masses we gotta get help aloft. Take the same icon track but strengthen/close the upper wave and you get a stripe of snow along and north of 40.
 
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SD said:
Its really not that far away tbh and if we were in the heart of winter the icon probably isn't rain. Given the time of year though with still marginally cold air masses and we gotta get help aloft. Take the same icon track but strengthen/close the upper wave and you get a stripe of snow along and north of 40.
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Is it too early to talk about the ICON warm bias? Lol
 
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