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Pattern Novemburrr

metwannabe said:
I'll elaborate on the "womp". Not that far off to be honest and that high latitude blocking is keeping the storm track suppressed, unfortunately pacific not cooperating and nothing to drag that cold air more south and southeast. Plus extremely early for this anyway, let's hope we can get something close to this later next month.

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Have got to get rid of that trough in Alaska if we really want to funnel in the cold air here. Keep this look and we will likely be below average but not cold enough to get any winter weather.
 
metwannabe said:
I'll elaborate on the "womp". Not that far off to be honest and that high latitude blocking is keeping the storm track suppressed, unfortunately pacific not cooperating and nothing to drag that cold air more south and southeast. Plus extremely early for this anyway, let's hope we can get something close to this later next month.

gfs_z500a_namer_37.png
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Looks like generously birdmandoom onset sleet
 
All 3 major ensembles are in pretty good agreement as we enter early December. Big +EPO/-NAO and some semblance of +PNA. This translates to mild, Pacific air flooding N America, leading to continental-scale warmth, and modified/weak continental polar air masses consistently pushing into the eastern US over top the west coast ridge. This is a generally stormy pattern w/o a way to tap into "true" arctic air, outside peak snow climo nonetheless. That obviously means lots of cold rain to go around. If I was in the SE US, I'd feel ok about this pattern producing snow if it were January, but it's late Nov/early Dec in an ever-warming basic state climate. We need all the help we can get and this simply won't cut it for most on the board.

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1638489600-C4rp3KM3RkY.png

1638489600-gpNKmhNh3Cs.png
 
Lickwx said:
I need @GaWx to post that model bias map. I’ve heard too cold and too warm . I suspect it’s been too cold based on previous history .
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I think it tends to be cold biased on average but it does well with wedges (better than most others) if I'm not mistaken.
 
SD said:
Well on the bright side this type of setup only favors short duration warm ups but it also favors almost no cold. If you like highs 55-65 and lows 30-40 this is it
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Hell that's avg and before last year we all wanted avg temps. Ill take it and hope for a few shots but I never expect snow in December anyways.
 
NoSnowATL said:
Hell that's avg and before last year we all wanted avg temps. Ill take it and hope for a few shots but I never expect snow in December anyways.
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Yeah it's not bad at all I'll take it. Maybe if someone gets a few flakes on the back/front of a system if the timing is right. Much better than a stacked SER or a unrelenting dry unproductive NW flow.
 
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